Trump is 2017’s wild card, experts say

President-elect Donald Trump dominated the conversation as pundits and experts debated what the future holds at the National Post’s 40th annual Outlook Luncheon. Here are their predictions for the coming year, writes Claire Brownell.

TRUMP CAN ONLY DO SO MUCH

Andrew Coyne, Postmedia columnist

Trump has promised sweeping changes to everything from trade deals to health care, but Coyne said it’s important to remember he’ll be operating within constraints. Senators and congressmen will be up for re-election in two years and the mood of the American public may be significantly different by then, Coyne said.

“There was no sweeping mandate of Trumpism, whatever Trumpism is,” Coyne said, referring to the fact Trump lost the popular vote by a bigger margin than any other president in U.S. history. “People may have been in the mood to throw a brick through a window this election. They may still be in that mood two years from now, but with a different target.”

In addition, Trump will have to work with Republicans in Congress, many of whom disagree with him on important issues. “The stuff that’s going to get through Congress will be of a somewhat more cautious or conservative frame of mind,” Coyne predicted.

Like Congress, the American public is often described as polarized, with mistrust of the media helping Trump to victory. Coyne said his biggest hope for the coming year is that people treat people with different opinions with respect.

“There is a generalized contempt for facts, for expertise, for elites, for people who know stuff,” Coyne said. “Being skeptical is a different thing from saying, ‘Anyone who knows anything, I’m going to reject.’”

OVERDONE OPTIMISM

Amanda Lang, Bloomberg TV Canada anchor

Lang said she was concerned by the market’s euphoric reaction to Trump’s victory. Trump won’t be able to influence the economy as much as people think, she said. “People are very bullish on the U.S. market, more bullish than I think they ought to be,” Lang said. “I think it’s overdone.”

Lang was similarly pessimistic about the political prospects of her former CBC co-host Kevin O’Leary, who is often compared to Donald Trump. O’Leary has been making campaignlike statements and musing about entering the race for the leadership of the federal Conservatives. “I don’t think he’ll put his hat in the ring in the end,” Lang said. “I think the impediments, especially the French language, are just too big.”

AMERICA IN CHARGE

Diane Francis, Financial Post columnist

Francis said she doesn’t think Trump’s promise to “rip up NAFTA” will be as disastrous for Canada as some have predicted. The Trump administration is likely to do some things that will be beneficial for Canada, such as approving Keystone XL but won’t forget we owe them a favour, she said.

“We’re going to get along nicely,” Francis said. “But they’re going to be the boss.”

Francis said her biggest concern about Trump is his temperament. “At 3 a.m. in his penthouse apartment, he may tweet something that destroys a sector,” she said. “He has a mean streak and he’s a bully.”

IN CANADA, DEFICITS

Jean-François Perrault, chief economist, Scotiabank Perrault turned his attention domestically, predicting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government will run deficits for the duration of its mandate. “This is a government that’s still in the process of identifying what it wants to do economically,” Perrault said. “Unfortunately that probably means a bigger government than we’re used to and that means bigger deficits.”

Meanwhile, the risk of a trade war with the U.S. is growing, Perrault said. He pointed out Trump is constrained by the WTO when it comes to tariffs, but said he can do a lot of damage to Canada’s economy.

“What he may or may not do can have a very significant impact, even indirectly,” Perrault said.

NDP DONE IN ALBERTA

Claudia Cattaneo, Western Business Columnist, Financial Post

Cattaneo made a forecast even further into the future than the coming year, predicting the NDP will not be re-elected in Alberta.

“There is incredible frustration in Alberta with the NDP,” Cattaneo said. “It’s seen as an illegitimate government that’s out of touch with reality.”

Cattaneo also predicted Jason Kenney will win the leadership of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative party by channelling Albertans’ frustrations with the current government. She also forecast a modest recovery in oil prices, but no return to triple digits.

“Nobody thinks it’s going to back to $100 or more, certainly not in the short term,” she said.