National Post (National Edition)

I’M TELLING YOU, IN THIS AREA, THERE’S NO QUESTION IN MY MIND, IT WOULD DEFINITELY FLY.

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you’re asking me if I’m speaking sort of the same language as Mr. Trump, I’m talking about a number of the same issues because what I’m hearing from Canadians are similar concerns.”

It’s clear, for some of her supporters at least, mimicking Trump is a virtue, not a sin. “I think Donald Trump is the best thing that could have ever happened to America,” said Correia. What isn’t as clear is whether that message can resonate beyond a particular fringe. speaking to those voters. Like Trump, she pushes hard for natural resource developmen­t, including pipelines, that would employ the blue-collar set. On her Fox appearance, she referenced a “globalist, open-border agenda,” using language lifted from anti-trade nationalis­ts in Europe and the United States.

But Leitch herself remains decidedly pro-trade. " I think that we’re a trading nation,” she said. “There’s only so many Canadians and we have an opportunit­y to expand the opportunit­ies for small- and mediumsize­d businesses when we have fair and open trade.” She stands by the pro-trade record of the Conservati­ve government she has served in. She’s pro NAFTA, pro-Trans-Pacific Partnershi­p, pro-free trade with the European Union.

Her appeal, then, is to a narrower slice of the Trump constituen­cy, among general election voters.”

That’s not to say there is no constituen­cy at all for that message in Canada. Compared to Europeans and Americans, Canadians are still relatively open to things like foreign investment, immigratio­n and multicultu­ralism, according to pollster Frank Graves, the president of Ekos Research. But that support is not as strong as it once was, and it’s been going down for years. “A lot of people think Canada doesn’t have the same forces that produced Trump or Brexit,” Graves said. “It absolutely does. They’re a little bit muted, but they’re here.”

That audience is also disproport­ionately concentrat­ed among Conservati­ve supporters, the people Leitch needs to capture the leadership. Graves polled Canadians on support for Donald Trump in November. A significan­t majority of Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc supporters disapprove­d of the job he was doing as president-elect. But a majority of Conservati­ve supporters — 57 per cent — approved. So when the Leitch team flicks at Trump’s themes or parrots his campaign, they aren’t necessaril­y poisoning the well, at least not the one they need to drink from right now.

Tim Powers, a longtime Conservati­ve strategist and outspoken Leitch critic, believes at the very least she could use the Trump message to sell membership­s. “I probably have responded as strongly as I have because I believe that they have the potential to win by playing off fears and discontent and misunderst­andings,” he said. "I think I’m not alone in that. There is still a good portion of Canadian society that harbours an older, traditiona­l version of the country. And some of that traditiona­l version is good and some of it is not so good.”

There are also those in other parties who will admit, quietly, that Canadians of all stripes are not nearly as allergic to nationalis­t anti-immigrant messages as some would like to pretend. One senior Liberal said the party’s own internal polling shows that Canadians on the whole don’t love immigratio­n, and that even on the refugee issue that captivated and helped turn the last election in the Liberals’ favour, the polling was pretty mixed.

“It would be a folly to pretend that there isn’t a market for the Canadian values message. There just is,” said Jason Lietaer, a Conservati­ve communicat­ions strategist who ran the party’s war room in the 2011 campaign. “And it’s not just in rural Ontario, rural Canada either. We’re not the United States. It’s a different market, different message, different culture, different everything. But there is a market for this. And she’s betting on what the size of that market might be.”

Lietaer believes Leitch may find particular­ly fertile ground for her message in Quebec, where debates over cultural values, immigratio­n and assimilati­on have raged for years. The Conservati­ve Party actually won more votes and more seats in Quebec in 2015 than it did in 2011. Many attribute that marginal bump, concentrat­ed in the Quebec City region, to the prominence of the debate over the niqab in the campaign.

“A student of mine told me, a few months later, that he had been working as an election worker and he said that the words at the end of the campaign were “niqab, niqab, niqab,” said Louis Massicotte, a political scientist at Laval University. “The general feeling here was that it was a good idea for the Conservati­ve candidates to raise this issue.”

For Leitch, whose French remains lacklustre, cultural values could be a way in to the crucial francophon­e voter pool. In the lead up to the recent Frenchlang­uage leadership debate, she spent several weeks straight in Quebec, much of it concentrat­ed in the Quebec City region. “I wouldn’t say this is a provincewi­de phenomenon, but certainly in some parts of Quebec, the kind of areas that vote federally for the Conservati­ve Party... Welland, Ont., resident Tom Napper looks at an abandoned John Deere factory he worked at for 32 years.

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