The Leafs can win this series, seriously

Idon’t know about you, but I love a good upset.

Give me the underdog over the favourite any day of the week. It doesn’t matter the team or even the sport. There is something thrilling about watching Goliath get toppled by a tiny nobody everyone wrote off.

Which brings us to the eighth-seed Toronto Maple Leafs and their first-round playoff series against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Washington Capitals.

Not one of the 18 hockey writers for Postmedia News predicted the Leafs would advance past the Capitals. In fact, only four believe the Leafs will win more than one game.

That doesn’t mean we know what we’re talking about.

Upsets — particularly, first-round upsets — happen all the time in hockey. Goalies can get hot, power plays can go cold and fourth-line players can suddenly discover a scoring touch that has been dormant since they entered the league.

Last year, two wild-card teams advanced to the second round of the playoffs. In 2012, the eighth-seed Los Angeles Kings not only upset the first-place Canucks in the first round but won the Stanley Cup.

Here are five reasons why the Leafs will advance past the Capitals (and three reasons why Goliath will be too darn strong for David to handle):

1. IT’S THE CAPITALS

I’m sorry, Washington, but your hockey team is full of choking dogs. At least that’s the perception. In six of the previous nine seasons, the Capitals have finished first in their division — winning the Presidents’ Trophy twice — and yet the team has not once advanced past the second round in that time (and lost in the first round three times). While fingers have pointed at Alex Ovechkin, he’s actually scored 41 goals and 82 points in 84 playoff games. But from Nicklas Backstrom (three goals and eight points in 14 games in 2015) to Evgeny Kuznetsov (one goal and one assist in 12 games last year), the supporting cast hasn’t always been supportive.

2. THE KIDS KEEP SURPRISING

We keep waiting for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Toronto’s other rookies to hit the proverbial wall that slows most first-year players. Instead, the kids keep getting better. Matthews and William Nylander each had 30 points in their final 34 games, while Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev had 15 points over the same span. Sure, they lack experience. But sometimes that can be a benefit. Unlike Washington, Toronto’s kids don’t know what losing feels like. If anything, they are oblivious to the external pressures of the playoffs.

3. FREDERIK ANDERSEN IS NOT BRADEN HOLTBY

In a tale of the tape, no one would pick Andersen over Braden Holtby. But while Holtby has won a Vezina Trophy and ranked among the top three goalies this season, he still hasn’t advanced past the second round of the playoffs. Andersen has. In 2014-15, the same year he shared the Williams M. Jennings Trophy for the league’s lowest goals-against average, he had the Anaheim Ducks within one win of the Stanley Cup final. Last year, he had a .947 save percentage with one shutout in a five-game firstround loss to the Predators.

4. MIKE BABCOCK IS PUSHING ALL THE RIGHT BUTTONS

Whether Babcock wins the Jack Adams Trophy or not, the head coach’s influence on the Leafs has been Svengali-like. He took a team that finished dead last in 2016 and guided them into an unlikely playoff spot. Tanking and drafting Matthews obviously helped. But how many first overall picks stepped into the league and made the playoffs as a rookie? Not many. Babcock is a big reason for that. He’s made a two-way player out of Nazem Kadri, a top-4 defenceman out of Jake Gardiner, and is getting contributions up and down the lineup. For the first time in a long time, there’s a belief inside the room that the Leafs are good enough.

5. OFFENSIVE DEPTH

The Capitals, who scored the third-most goals in the NHL this season, have a forward corps that includes Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie. But the Leafs are no slouches when it comes to filling the net. Toronto, which was fifth in goals per game and had the second-best power play, had three players (Matthews, Kadri and James van Riemsdyk) score 29 goals or more this season.

Three reasons why the Capitals will be too much for the Leafs to handle:

1. A SHAKY DEFENCE

The Capitals’ top line of Nicklas Backstrom (86 points), Alex Ovechkin (33 goals) and T.J. Oshie (33 goals) combined for 89 goals and 211 points. And they will be going up against a defence that is missing Nikita Zaitsev for at least Game 1 and where Morgan Rielly was a minus-20.

2. MOUNTING INJURIES

Whether it’s Zaitsev, Tyler Bozak, Roman Polak or Andersen, most of Toronto’s players enter the playoffs banged up, bruised or barely walking. After a game or two against the heavy-hitting Capitals, there might not be enough ice packs to share around.

3. THE LEAFS ARE SIMPLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH

The Capitals finished first in the league for a reason. The team is really good. From their goaltending to their defence to their forwards, Washington does not have a weak spot.