How Andrew Scheer won

DOWN BALLOT SUPPORT FOR NEW LEADER CITED AS A BIG, UNIFYING REASON

building consensus; not being too aggressive in attacking other candidates; positioning himself as the nice-guy compromise candidate, an easy second choice for voters across the conservative spectrum — was the true one in this race, where a ranked ballot meant the victor was decided by the order in which party members preferred the candidates, their vote transferring to the next candidate on their ballot once their leading choice was eliminated.

One member of the Scheer campaign team said that second-choice support was “what really clinched it,” but that it helped that Scheer was able to appeal to a wide range of party members, including social conservatives.

“Andrew’s a Catholic. He’s a man of faith, he’s a man of principle. But he is a unifier. He has been able to talk to every kind of conservative, and find out what unifies conservatives.”

Bernier’s campaign manager Nuttall conceded in the wake of Scheer’s victory that second-, third- and down-ballot support had been the key.

“That’s a good way to win,” he said, because it unites the party. “The social conservatives are a key pillar of our party and they turned out in big numbers,” Nuttall said.

That social conservative vote, largely split between Pierre Lemieux and Brad Trost on the early ballots, played a key role in Saturday’s outcome.

It appeared to have consolidated behind Trost, who dropped off the ballot after a fourth-place finish. With Trost out of contention, Scheer closed to within two percentage points of Bernier in the next round.

“Brad Trost’s rallying support is probably the story out of this. It’s the biggest surprise,” said Melanie Paradis, Erin O’Toole’s director of communications.

“It sends an important message that the social conservative voice is strong inside the country and needs to be respected, and now we have a leader who will do that.”

While Scheer may have drawn support from social conservatives, he was at pains throughout the campaign to present himself as somebody promoting big-tent policies that could find favour in a party still fond of Stephen Harper.

“The party wants to have a Harper party,” said Mike Coates, a senior organizer who had chaired Kevin O’Leary’s campaign until he dropped out a month ago to endorse Bernier. “Which is fine by me,” Coates added.

The win also appeared to reward the Scheer campaign’s slow-and-steady approach.

Marshall said Scheer’s ground organizers had focused strategically on specific regions, on ridings with low numbers of party members.

Rural Quebec was considered winnable because of Scheer’s support for dairy, egg and chicken supply management — a policy Bernier would have ended. Scheer’s approach earned him the endorsement of the Dairy Farmers of Quebec.

“They signed up thousands and thousands and thousands of people across the province,” said Marshall. Indeed, party results show Scheer won Beauce, Bernier’s own riding.

“Andrew was very good at speaking to farmers. In Quebec, in particular, he rallied a lot of support there,” Paradis said. It may have been his “ground game” in Quebec that pushed him above Bernier, she added.

Nuttall, Bernier’s manager, wasn’t convinced the issue was fatal for his candidate.

“Certainly dairy farmers don’t represent 51 per cent of the party,” he told the Post on Saturday night following Scheer’s victory.

Scheer had the support of much of the party’s establishment, as well, entering the race with the endorsement of 20 members of the Conservative caucus. Though some were siphoned off late in the campaign by Erin O’Toole, who finished third after a campaign in which he competed against Scheer to be the compromise candidate, everybody’s second choice, Scheer retained the support of major Conservative players.

Scheer didn’t pull ahead of Bernier until the final ballot, when O’Toole fell out of the running, the reallocation of his votes nudging Scheer over the 50-per-cent mark. “If either of us were going to do it, it would be just barely, and it would be because of the other’s votes,” said Paradis.

Polls had consistently shown Bernier in a winning position, with his team swaggering through the final weeks as though victory were assured. In the days leading up to the convention, however, the Scheer camp’s own math suggested whoever won would do so with less than 53 per cent of the vote.

The O’Toole camp shared the Scheer campaign’s questions about the Bernier team’s sense of their advantage.

“You have these moments of doubt. Like, are we way out to lunch, here? What is it that we’re missing that the polling is so different than what we’re seeing?” said Paradis. “Of course we remind ourselves regularly that polling has fundamental flaws, especially in a race like this.”

Concerns over party unity permeated the convention weekend. A significant tranche of the party was uneasy with Bernier and his policies. Candidates lined up Friday to reassure a crowd of party members that they’d stand behind the new leader no matter who it was.

Scheer’s campaign manager, Marshall, described him as a “stable manager, (a) friendly uniter kind of guy.” Indeed, there was a sense Saturday night unity fears would be put to bed with his win.

“I believe Andrew Scheer can unite and keep our party very strong. Look, our party’s incredibly strong,” said Fred DeLorey, O’Toole’s campaign manager.

“We have 99 MPs. We are outfundraising the Liberals. There’s so much positive going on in the party. We have a full-time permanent leader now. We are in a very good position.”