National Post (National Edition)

THERE IS ROOM FOR THE BULL MARKET TO RUN.

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about them: it happened before, so it has to happen again, and the invisible hand of fate will ensure that what goes up must come down.

Yet some might find a more substantiv­e reason for worry in the fact that last year’s bond selloff didn’t last. Yields have been falling, even though the Fed is tightening. Fixed income markets are saturated with cash, across the spectrum of risk. The spread between high-yield and Treasuries is tight, as investors scramble for yield and economic optimism prevails. That raises the possibilit­y that risk is being mis-priced.

There’s also that problem with oil prices, which could plummet even further if OPEC abandons production limits next year (as it increasing­ly looks like it should, since they’re not working), which would send the debtfuelle­d U.S. oil industry swoon, and the Canadian economy into a tailspin. And let’s not forget that the world’s second-largest economy, China, is grappling with a credit bubble of its own.

For the record, and on balance, I think there is room for the bull market to run, even if it’s taking a bit of a pause this month. But, you know, I’ve been wrong about that before.

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