New poll suggests ‘northern populism’ brewing in Canada

Project explores how politics may be changing

OTTAWA • A majority of Canadians believe the factors driving recent political upheaval in other Western countries are on the rise here too, a new poll suggests.

But The Canadian Press/ EKOS Politics survey indicates those who support challenges to the status quo here are somewhat different than those behind it elsewhere, suggesting a version of “northern populism” could be brewing in Canada.

“Most of the ‘elites’ will tell you it’s not really happening here, we’re pretty immune to this sort of thing,” said Frank Graves, president of EKOS.

“But when we ask Canadians, there’s room, and perhaps fuel, for populism in other parts of society.”

Populism is the term mostoften used to describe the political movement that led to outsider Donald Trump’s ascendance to the U.S. presidency, and Britain’s shocking referendum in support of exiting the European Union.

In The Populism Project, The Canadian Press has been exploring whether the factors that led to those events exist in Canada, and how politics here could be changing as a result.

Pinpointing those factors isn’t an exact science. To see where Canadians stand, the survey pulled together common themes to fashion a definition: opposition to trade and globalization, support for more restrictive immigration policies, and distrust of those considered to be elite.

The question was then put to 5,568 Canadians between June 1 and June 19: Many people talk about the rise of these factors in the U.S. and Europe. What do you think about it? And is it happening here?

Seventy-one per cent said they believe it is, and is on the rise to either a moderate or high degree.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points, 19 times out 20.

Of those surveyed, only 33 per cent thought populism was a bad thing, 42 per cent were on the fence, and 20 per cent thought it as positive.

Digging into those numbers reveals some differences between who supports populism in Canada, compared with who was understood to be driving it around the world. Take free trade. Both Trump’s upset victory in the U.S. election, and Britain’s referendum in favour of exiting the EU were campaigns won in part on a rejection of trade liberalization.

Among Trump’s key campaign pledges — ripping up the North American Free Trade deal.

Only about 50 per cent of Americans surveyed last month by Pew Research were in support of NAFTA, and exit polls from the U.S. election suggested 65 per cent of Trump supporters believed free trade took away jobs.

But the CP/EKOS survey suggests that 81 per cent of Canadians support trilateral trade between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.

Trump’s largest base of support was among Americans who defined themselves as white, while in the U.K., data suggests areas with the lowest percentage of foreign-born residents voted overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the EU.

In Canada, of those polled, 22 per cent of people who weren’t born here thought populism was a good thing, compared to 18.5 per cent of those whose parents were both born here.

“If Trump populism is rooted in the white working class, that explicitly does not appear to be the case in Canada,” the survey said.