$15 plan would put 185K jobs at risk: coalition

MINIMUM WAGE

said Karl Baldauf, a spokesman for the coalition.

He said the reforms are “too much, too soon,” echoing concerns expressed by business groups since the minimum wage increase was announced.

Key figures of the analysis were made public Monday and more findings are expected to be released in the weeks and months to come, the group said.

The proposed legislation would, among other things, raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, require equal pay for part-time workers and expand personal emergency leave.

The bill would boost the minimum wage, which is currently set to rise with inflation from $11.40 an hour to $11.60 in October, up to

Premier Kathleen Wynne has said she is working on ideas to support Ontario businesses through major labour reforms, but has yet to say exactly what form this relief would take. Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid has also suggested the province was looking at reducing other costs for businesses to help them cope with the labour changes.

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, a national think tank, said the numbers released Monday represent a worst-case scenario that research suggests is unlikely to pan out.

David Macdonald, the centre’s senior economist, said similar predictions have been made in other jurisdictions ahead of minimumwage hikes but there has in fact been “little impact on employment.”

He also said the analysis doesn’t reflect that employees earning more will also spend more, or that businesses will see gains in productivity and save on training costs by better retaining their staff.

“Those pieces balance themselves out,” he said.

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis conducted the study, which examines the impact of six key areas of reform, namely changes to the minimum wage, equal pay provisions, vacation, scheduling, personal emergency leave and unionization.

The centre said both current and potential new jobs would be at risk in the first two years of the plan. It projects the number of jobs will be 2.4-per-cent lower under the proposed legislation.

Small business owners will be more affected, as will women, who are more likely to hold lower-paying jobs, said Paul Smetanin, the organization’s president.

The coalition said labour reforms should be introduced more gradually but did not recommend a particular timeline. It also renewed its calls for the government to conduct an economic analysis of its own.