Left with only one realistic alternative

It has been four weeks since Donald Trump vowed to rain down upon North Korea “fire and fury, like the world has never seen” if it continued to behave so belligerently. Since that time the regime has threatened to annihilate Guam, sent a missile over Japan, and exploded what it claimed was a hydrogen bomb.

If the aim was to cow Kim Jong-Un into setting aside his nuclear ambitions, it has clearly failed. To deter an adversary, it is not sufficient to string together a lot of blustery Bmovie rhetoric, no matter how heavily you scowl. There must be some serious likelihood — or at least, your adversary must believe there is — of the threat actually being carried out.

Whether or not an adversary is likely to believe that will in part depend on the perceived character and reputation of the person issuing the threat; in part on whether he is perceived to have the backing of those around him; in part on similar perceptions of solidarity with allied countries.

President Vladimir Putin called his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in, Monday with both men condemning the test and Putin emphasizing that he believed diplomacy was the only solution. Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian deputy foreign minister, said that any “clumsy steps” could make the situation worse, and a political resolution was needed.

“Those who are stronger and smarter should show restraint,” he said. “Any clumsy step could lead to an explosion.”

China, North Korea’s protector, echoed Russia in condemning the test, but urged the North and South to focus on working towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict that has left the Korean Peninsula divided since the ”50s. Describing the situation as a “vicious circle,” Liu Jieyi, China’s ambassador to the UN, said: “China will never allow chaos and war on the Peninsula.”

Also on Monday, President Donald Trump spoke by phone with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and agreed that Sunday’s underground nuclear test by North Korea was an unprecedented provocation. The two leaders also agreed to remove the limit on the payload of South Korean missiles.

But Trump has boxed himself into an uncomfortable situation with South Korea, having lashed out at Seoul for being naive with their suggestions of diplomacy, and seething at the trade deficit between the two countries.

Angela Merkel and Trump spoke by phone after which the German government said that Merkel had agreed with the need for stronger sanctions. Switzerland offered to be a mediator between North Korea and its increasingly antagonistic partners.

South Korea responded to North Korea’s nuclear test Monday with live-fire drills off its eastern coast, which were meant to simulate an attack on the North’s main test site.

Their defence minister, Song Young-moo, said he believes the North has successfully miniaturized a nuclear weapon to fit on to a missile.

North Korea said that its enemies are “hell-bent on escalating confrontation,” as it launched a scathing attack on the “warmongers” in Seoul.

Washington and Seoul say the manoeuvres are defensive, but Pyongyang views them as a rehearsal for invasion. The North recently requested a Security Council meeting about the war games.