Visions of annihilation

Viruses, AI & bombs: Predictions of the end.

Escalating tensions with North Korea have sparked fears about a possible Third World War; an apocalyptic spasm of global violence that could imperil the future of the species that created it. Here are four other forces that big thinkers believe could toll the bell for all of us.

ASTEROID

After ruling the earth for an incredible 165 million years, dinosaurs as we understand them were likely laid low by a single celestial object slamming into what is now Mexico. Similarly, all it would take is an asteroid the size of Stanley Park to threaten all human life on Earth. While most of us would survive the initial strike, the impact would kick up enough dust to block out the sun and wither the world’s crops. Plumes of dust would be kicked into the upper atmosphere, and as they settled they would scream back down as flaming ejecta, setting whole regions of the planet on fire. There are hundreds of asteroids in the solar system that fit the bill. And NASA keeps a running tally of menacing space objects. So far, though, one of the most dangerous is (410777) 2009 FD, a rock that has a onein-630 chance of hitting us in 2185 — and even then, at only 160 metres wide, it would take out only a few language groups.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

No less than tech billionaire Elon Musk has claimed that artificial intelligence is “potentially more dangerous than nukes.” His source is the 2014 bestseller Superintelligence, in which British philosopher Nick Bostrom laid out how computers could supplant humanity as the Earth’s dominant force. It’s just like humans and gorillas:While both are forest primates that were once essentially on the same footing, humans quickly conquered the globe through technology, and gorillas now persist at our whim. The moment technology learns to improve itself without outside input, it could similarly make humanity its gorilla.

PANDEMIC

Canada and the United States were built on the ruins of Indigenous societies laid to waste by a string of 18th- and 19thcentury epidemics, some with fatality rates of 90 per cent. According to billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates, a pandemic is also the most likely event to reap an eight-figure death toll by the year 2035. While humanity is well-equipped to deal with historical killers like the Black Death or polio, a newly mutated virus could be scything through populations around the world before governments have any idea what’s going on. As Gates put it, “there are still big holes in the world’s ability to respond to an epidemic.” Likewise, the 2007 book The World Without Us imagines a planet made people-free by airborne AIDS.

RUNAWAY CLIMATE CHANGE

In July, physicist Stephen Hawking told the BBC that the actions of U.S. president Donald Trump could trigger a tipping point of climate change powerful enough to turn Earth into Venus: A CO2-choked heat trap where the oceans boil and all life is exterminated. Actual climate scientists, however, were quick to note that Hawking’s prescriptions were wildly overblown. The generally accepted long-term, worst-case scenario for climate change is abandoned regions, trillions in damage and unprecedented refugee waves — but no Venuslike planetary death. It’s theoretically possible to Venus-ify the Earth, but “burning all the fossil fuels won’t give us a runaway greenhouse,” the University of Victoria’s Colin Goldblatt told National Geographic in 2013. However, as with all of the preceding apocalyptic scenarios, extreme climate change wouldn’t have to directly kill everyone. It would just have to smash society enough to leave the traumatized survivors to die of starvation, exposure, infighting and various epidemics.