National Post (National Edition)
Assad to Putin: Thanks for ‘saving our country’
HIS COUNTRY MAY BE IN RUINS, BUT SYRIAN PRESIDENT BASHAR ASSAD WON’T BE LEAVING OFFICE ANYTIME SOON
A WARM EMBRACE Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to rest his head on the shoulder of Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Assad thanked Putin and Russia’s top brass Tuesday for their “sacrifices” and efforts made to “save our country.”
THAT REQUIRES MASSIVE ESCALATION, RESTARTING THE WAR FROM SCRATCH.
His nation is a smouldering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold on to power for the foreseeable future.
The sides in Syria's civil war are preparing for what will be the eighth round of UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva intended to forge a path forward for a political transition to end the conflict. But barring any surprises, no negotiated resolution is likely to lead to Assad's ouster.
One reason is military. Assad's forces have had momentum on the ground the past year, backed by an overwhelming Russian air campaign and fighters from Iran and Hezbollah. Assad's government now controls more than 50 per cent of Syria.
Holding half the country normally wouldn't be an optimistic sign, but that's up from 19 per cent earlier this year. His troops control Syria's four largest cities, 10 of Syria's 14 provincial capitals and its Mediterranean coast.
On the diplomatic front, the top supporters of the opposition, the U.S. and its allies, long ago backed off demands that any deal involve Assad's immediate removal. Now they are pushing for a plan for elections that could bring a new leader. But Russia now dominates the negotiating process, meaning there is little pressure on him to accept real elections.
Assad's opposition is in disarray. The top opposition negotiator, Riyad Hijab, resigned on Monday, complaining that foreign powers were carving up Syria and brokering side deals to “prolong the life of Bashar Assad's regime.” He leaves his post just two days before the opposition was to meet in Saudi Arabia to come up with a unified delegation and negotiating stance.
Assad looks increasingly confident. On Monday, he travelled to Sochi for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Assad has ventured outside his war-ravaged nation only twice since the conflict began — both times to Russia.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in late October repeated Washington's call for Assad to surrender control, insisting that “the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end.” But turning that call into reality takes leverage that Washington doesn't appear ready to use.
In a joint statement released earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed that there is no military solution to the conflict in Syria. They made vague comments about Assad's “recent commitment to the Geneva process and constitutional reform and elections.”
There are few scenarios that could bring about Assad's fall. One would be if the U.S. struck a deal that convinced Russia to force Assad to accept a transition that ensures his departure from the presidency. But it is hard to imagine what incentive the U.S. could give Moscow to dump its ally. Another scenario would be if the U.S. reversed course and launched an all-out military drive against Assad.
“That requires massive escalation, restarting the war from scratch to roll back Assad's gains and creating an opposition that is both able to govern and acceptable to the international community,” said Aron Lund, a fellow with New York-based think-tank The Century Foundation.
“Looking at the conflict right now and how the opposition's allies are all backing away — it's just not going to happen,” he said.
Trump ended a CIA-backed program training rebel forces trying to oust Assad. The U.S. has been more focused on fighting Islamic State in Syria, supporting Kurdish-led forces that have rolled back the militants and took control of nearly a quarter of the country. Turkey, another top supporter of the opposition, is more concerned with thwarting the ambitions of the Kurds in Syria than with ousting Assad.
Russia, meanwhile, helped mediate a series of local ceasefires between Assad's forces and rebels on most fronts around the country. That has allowed Assad and his allies — troops from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and Iraqi Shiite militiamen — to focus on battling the Islamic State group in the east.
On Sunday, state-run media announced that Assad's forces have recaptured the town of Boukamal, the Islamic State group's last significant stronghold in Syria, leaving the militants to defend just strips of desert territory in the country and a besieged pocket outside the capital, Damascus.
“To be sure there will be flare-ups of violence and bombings and unrest,” Lund said. “But he (Assad) holds the centre, he holds most of the population, he's got the economy and the institutions and the UN seat . ... He has all the stuff he needs to continue to rule.”
When Syria's conflict began with mass protests in March 2011, many expected Assad to be quickly toppled like other Arab leaders. Regional and international supporters of the opposition poured in money and weapons and then U.S. president Barack Obama and other Western leaders declared the Assad dynasty finished.
Assad's determination never wavered throughout the conflict, aided by the opposition's fragmentation and Russia and Iran's interventions.
Nikolaos Van Dam, author of the book Destroying A Nation: The Civil War in Syria, said Western countries created false expectations by calling on Assad to step down while only offering halfhearted support for the opposition and underestimating the cohesion of Assad's leadership