National Post (National Edition)
California is burning and Diablo is to blame
FIERCE WINDS FUEL DESTRUCTIVE FLAMES
WASHINGTON • Why is California burning? One answer is simple: California always burns.
But this latest inferno — three wildfires eating at the hills in and around Los Angeles, the nation’s second-largest city — is frightening even for people who are accustomed to big burns. What’s more, it follows the state’s deadliest fire on record by only a few weeks.
It gets even worse. The recent Sonoma County fires north of San Francisco that left more than 40 people dead, and the current Thomas Fire that has destroyed 800 structures and damaged or threatens more than 18,000 others in the Santa Barbara area, are so bad that they’ve rendered last year’s horrid Blue Cut Fire that wiped out more than 300 homes near San Bernardino a distant memory.
California Gov. Jerry Brown appeared stricken in an address to his state, calling the gargantuan blazes “the new normal” in one sentence and “the new reality” in another, before finally saying: “With climate change, some scientists are saying California is literally burning up.” There is a lot of blame to go around. Blame the devil. Or more precisely, said Jon Keeley, a research geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, the dreaded Diablo winds. Usually, winds in the area “flow from the west, carrying cool, humid air from the (Pacific Ocean) onshore,” Keeley wrote in a Monday blog post.
But the hot, dry Diablos reversed course, blowing at 65 km/h from the northeast toward the ocean with gusts of up to 120 km/h. Winds don’t put out fire. They give it a ride and deposit flames all over.
“These hot, dry winds develop from an unusual pattern of high and low pressure cells, and are most prominent in autumn. They follow the normal summer and fall drought that occurs in this Mediterranean-type climate, leading to severe fire weather conditions,” Keeley wrote. They’ve played a role in California’s most catastrophic fires, he said, including the 1991 Tunnel Fire in Oakland that left 25 people dead. “The speed of these fires is a major factor leading to the loss of human lives.”
Blame county planners and housing developers. Two million homes bump against wildlands in the West, the majority in two states with the highest risk, Washington and California, according to Headwaters Economics, an independent non-profit group that studies wildfire prevention. People get to live and work in remote locations with beautiful views, but the value of properties at a moderate to high risk of being engulfed is about US$500 billion, according to CoreLogic, a company that studies real estate economics, not to mention the risk to people’s lives.
“It’s a witch’s brew,” Tom Harbour, the former national fire and aviation director for the Forest Service, said to me for a 2015 story about the challenges his firefighters faced when he sent them to fight fires that are better left alone to burn. “The risk keeps increasing. I’m putting firefighters in harm’s way.”
Keeley adds a key point here. The explosion of development close to woods increases fire drama. “Nearly all fires in Sonoma County are caused directly or indirectly by people, such as intentional ignitions or power lines igniting fires. Population growth raises the probability of fire igniting under severe weather conditions,” he wrote.
Blame the climate. “It never rains in California” is just a saying and a song. It often pours in winter — rain in the southern portion of the state and snow in the northern and central mountains. As a result, foliage blooms in a range of colours in every corner of the Golden State.
Then it dries in the hot summer. Not normal dry, but baked dry, devoid of any moisture. “Plants are happy and growing well in the winter time, and when summer proceeds to the fall they get drier and drier,” said Marti Witter, a fire ecologist for the National Park Service.
Blame the Santa Ana winds. “The intensity of the Santa Ana winds is about as extreme as they get,” Witter said of the winds that have driven the Thomas Fire into legend as the fifth-largest in California history. Witter kept repeating the word extreme.
“It’s definitely extreme. I wouldn’t say they’re completely unprecedented. We’re basically having a firestorm that happened in 1993, 2003, 2007, the Soberanes Fire, Rim Fir and Station Fire. It’s certainly an extreme event.”