Put your worries away

Why a North Korean threat to Olympics seems unlikely

Usually it takes until the Games are underway before everyone relaxes about security fears. At the last Olympics, in Rio de Janeiro, the concerns were about that city’s rampant street crime. In the weeks prior to the Olympics, The New York Times ran a story that said people were being mugged in the shadow of the beach volleyball bleachers that were being erected on Copacabana Beach. Though there were assorted stories of danger as the Games unfolded, the massive military presence in the city almost immediately quelled most fears.

At Sochi 2014, the stories in the lead-up were about the potential of Chechen-rebel violence, usually bolstered by a reference to the headline-friendly “Black Widow” suicide bombers. At London 2012, terror concerns led to a massive security presence, with anti-aircraft missile launchers set up in tourist areas like Hyde Park. As is the case any time a large public event is held in the post-9/11 world, the Olympics are always seen as a potential target for a group looking to make a significant terror impact. But the costly security measures in place — every venue is ringed by airport-style screening — have limited those opportunities and turned the Games themselves into a hard target.

The nuclear standoff has, at least, introduced a new element to the concerns. As the North has pushed ahead with provocative tests and ignored warning after warning against doing so, those planning to attend Pyeongchang 2018 have wondered what it might all mean. Would Kim-Jong Un be crazy enough to start a war during the Olympics?

But, while escalated tensions are only an intemperate tweet away, the events of the past few weeks would seem to have dramatically scaled down the likelihood of the worst-case scenario. One doesn’t have to be an expert in Asian geopolitics to assume that North Korea doesn’t want to bomb an Olympics with North Koreans present.

South Korean officials have gone to pains, though, to say that the invitations to North Koreans — there are 22 athletes and another dozen or so officials — were about more than a missiledefence security blanket. Under new president Moon Jae-in, the son of North Korean refugees, the South has insisted that the Olympics are a chance for a celebratory party that should include the whole peninsula.

“The world will witness peace through the Olympic Games,” Moon said in a latesummer address.

So far, his words have been proven correct.