‘Bibi-fatigued’ Israel faces spectre of war

Lin Tel Aviv ast Tuesday night, four days after an Iranian anti-aircraft missile breached Israeli airspace and downed an F-16, forcing two pilots to eject to safety, the premiere evening television news program in Israel dropped another bomb, of sorts: following a long investigation, Israeli police were recommending to the attorney general that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be charged with two counts each of bribery and breach of trust.

That same night, a resolute and unfailingly articulate Netanyahu addressed the nation on television, vowing to clear his name and continue to lead Israel as it faced the spectre of imminent war against Iran and its proxies on its northern borders. The recent collapse of ISIL has allowed Iran to establish a firm arc of military control from Tehran to the Mediterranean. Repeated Iranian and Hezbollah pledges to destroy Israel are taken seriously here, as is the possibility that Iran’s Syrian ally, Bashar AlAssad, will deploy chemical weapons against his domestic opponents, with the danger of their toxic effects seeping into Israel.

Against this rather dramatic backdrop, the unceasing speculation on Bibi’s guilt or innocence now drives the news cycle in Israel. The police have been investigating the prime minister and certain of his closest associates for well over a year now and they have been anything but circumspect as they go about their work. Lives and careers have been destroyed as allegations regarding collusion have tainted several high-level former aides to the prime minister in the extreme sport that passes for Israeli politics.

At the heart of it all are two cases in which Bibi is alleged to have received bribes. For example, Case 1000, as it is called here, posits that the prime minister and his family received wildly generous supplies of the finest Champagne, cigars and jewelry for many years from Arnon Milchan, an Israeli living for decades in America, and the Australian billionaire James Packer, totalling approximately onemillion shekels (approximately $350,000 in Canadian dollars). The prime minister does not dispute that he received such gifts, but claims to have done so in the context of a long-term and close friendship with Milchan.

In the context of bribery of public officials, Israeli case law holds that modest gifts may be given and received among friends but this invites scrutiny of every aspect of the friendship, particularly when the exchange involves the most powerful person in elected office in the country.

If the court finds that the gift-giving was not done in the context of friendship, then there is a presumption in Israeli law that a public office holder understands there are strings attached. In other words, Milchan and Packer weren’t sending over crates of luxury goodies for nothing.

Will the unrelenting pressure and scrutiny of this investigation distract and derail Bibi and force him to resign? No one doubts the PM’s pugilistic stamina nor underestimates his determination to continue to dominate Israeli politics and fight what he calls a frame-up “with more holes in it than Swiss cheese.”

The wild card in all this is the Israeli public and its dissipating tolerance for a rightwing coalition government dependent on extremist religious parties for its survival. There is a growing sense of “Bibi-fatigue” as the PM nears 10 consecutive years in power. We may be getting into “enough is enough” territory, but no one expects this prime minister to go anywhere anytime soon.

The decision to actually indict the PM now rests with the attorney general, Avichai Mandelblit, who is expected to take up to a year to review all police reports supporting their recommendation, likely leaving the prime minister, and the country, in limbo until the eve of the next scheduled election in March of next year. Polls commissioned and released in Israel since Tuesday night have consistently reported that close to half of Israelis think the PM is likely corrupt and should step aside. (I’d be willing to bet that if such polls were taken every day from the founding of Israel, the results would be the same.)

The Israeli electorate is notoriously disgruntled, disunified and irreverent of its leaders, particularly when they are in office. Corruption is accepted with characteristic Jewish nihilism but judged and punished with impunity.

Riding high in the polls (and Bibi’s main challenger) is Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist “Yesh Atid” party, who also happens to be a key witness in the police case against the prime minister. Lapid says he merely responded to a summons and answered truthfully, a core duty of any responsible citizen. To which Bibi and his supporters, say, “Ya. Right.”

Short of an eventual indictment, it will likely require a surge of public anger to undermine Bibi’s grip on power. Popular frustration is building, but would have to spike to the point that the PM’s coalition partners would feel compelled to withdraw their support, forcing an election on an issue of trust for a beleaguered leader. Today’s reality? Thursday night, an energetic Bibi bounded up the stairs to a waiting aircraft headed for the Munich conference on global security, where he intends to deliver some very tough messages regarding Iranian and Russian meddling in Syria and Lebanon. When asked if there was any thought given to the PM not attending Munich, in light of the rather extraordinary week and pressures at home, his office reportedly dismissed the possibility out of hand.

Never underestimate Bibi Netanyahu.