‘Stunning’ rebuff ofTrump

The report also contradicts the president by stating that trade has helped the U.S. economy grow; that economies are shifting away from manufacturing; that foreign trade is increasingly important to the modern economy; that America has a good record of success in international dispute panels at the WTO; and that you can’t rework trade agreements to fix an import-export deficit.

“Trade and economic growth are strongly and positively correlated,” the White House report says.

The report does concede trade deals create winners and losers in a country. States along the border have been the biggest winners in NAFTA, it says. Its general conclusion, however, is trade creates jobs and wealth; it cites a study that every percentage point increase in trade-to-GDP ratio raises per capita income by between 0.5 and 2 per cent.

“(This) is a stunning rebuke of ... the president and his trade team,” Scott Lincicome of the pro-market Cato Institute tweeted after the report was released last week.

The 563-page document was produced by Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers. He appointed the council.

Do these kinds of facts even matter to Trump?

That could soon become clearer as he faces major decisions in the next few weeks. One involves whether to continue NAFTA negotiations beyond the spring; another involves whether to impose global steel and aluminum tariffs and whether any tariffs should apply to Canada, the U.S.’s No. 1 supplier.

Affected Canadians are watching to see whether he’ ll heed his own findings.

“We’re all guessing the moves of a non-conventional actor,” said Flavio Volpe of Canada’s auto-parts manufacturers’ association, which has a stake in both the NAFTA and steel decisions.

“None of us believe that, if they do the calculus, they’ll see that (punishing Canada) is in their best interest. But of course we’re all modelling in the fact that logic isn’t always the overlord with this administration.”