Why the U.S. wants to fast track NAFTA, and whether it’s possible

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, Mexican Economy Minister Idelfonso Guajardo, centre, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer at the seventh round of NAFTA talks Monday in Mexico City. a deal by December. That’s similar to the estimate offered by his former American counterpart Mickey Kantor — Clinton’s first U.S. trade czar foresees at least six months more of negotiating.

“It’s going to take time,” Kantor said. “Trade agreements don’t end before their time ... There are a number of issues on the table — they have to be resolved.”

Compare the current and past timetables.

The original NAFTA took 14 months to negotiate. Lawyers then combed the text for errors, Clinton was elected and insisted on new labour and environmental side-deals, and then there were ratification votes — in the end, it took about 30 months.

The current negotiations are into their seventh month. Of the roughly 30 chapters to complete, six are done so far. That’s not fast enough, current U.S. trade czar Robert Lighthizer said at the close of a round in Mexico City.

“Now our time is running deal: “I would be inclined not to (admit my doubts about the timetable) ... I’d say, ‘We’re prepared to proceed very, very fast ... Speed — we’re prepared to go very, very quickly.”’

His second suggestion is to show a counter-threat on the steel and aluminum tariffs.

Weekes suggests mapping out a longer-than-necessary list of products, potential retaliatory targets, where tariffs would create maximum political damage for American politicians, but the least economic damage.

He would make that preliminary list public, in the hope that it scares a few people in Washington. He would hope never to have to use it. And he would ignore the Economics 101 lectures about tariffs being mutually destructive.

“I think we need to do something to make sure we don’t look like we’re pushovers,” Weekes said.

“If we roll over, we’re basically saying, ‘Come after us any time. Be my guest.” ’

It’s unclear whether Trump’s tariffs will ever become reality.

A newly released Quinnipiac poll said the tariffs are quite unpopular — with just 28 per cent of Americans wanting a trade war and 31 per cent wanting tariffs. Already the administration says the penalties might never come into effect for Canada and Mexico if there’s a new NAFTA.

The idea of tariffs on Canada is even becoming a political liability for the administration: for those Americans bashing the steel and aluminum plan, the notion of a trade war against Canada has actually become a favourite talking point.

President Donald Trump plans a more formal announcement within about a week. That coincides with a planned campaign rally in the steel-producing state of Pennsylvania, where there’s a hard-fought congressional election March 13.

On Tuesday, the president indicated he would be delicate in imposing tariffs: “We’ll do it in a very loving way,” he said, standing next to the prime minister of Sweden.