PARTY’S RISKY WAGER

ONTARIO’S TORIES JUST MADE THINGS A LOT HARDER FOR THEMSELVES

In the closing months of the U.S. Civil War, the Union army hit on a scheme to undermine defensive forces outside the Confederate capital at Richmond, Va. They would dig a tunnel, fill it with powder and blow a hole under the entrenched enemy.

The tunnel was duly dug, loaded with explosives and a fuse lit. The blast left an enormous crater, which Union forces stormed, guns waving. Unfortunately, they found the walls too steep to climb out the other side. Trapped, they were slaughtered in the hundreds by gleeful Confederates. On the weekend, Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives marched deep into a similar chasm, choosing the contentious and untried Doug Ford as leader. Liberal troops are already loading their muskets.

Of three possible leaders — the one-note wonder Tanya Granic Allen didn’t count — Ford is the riskiest. Polls show Ontarians are eager to free themselves from 15 years of Liberal rule, but favoured either Christine Elliott or Caroline Mulroney to take on Premier Kathleen Wynne. While Ford inspires fierce loyalty among his supporters, he is also deeply divisive: an Angus Reid survey found 48 per cent of voters who said they were willing to consider supporting the Tories also declared they might change their mind if Ford was in charge. “Ford,” the survey found, “would discourage double the number he would encourage to support the Progressive Conservatives if he became leader.”

He won anyway. The byzantine voting process — carried out under immense pressure over a short period and with an election due in June — may have been a factor, and left many a disgruntled Tory. The fact Ford was able to muster enough support to make the race a contest in the first place will leave many people perplexed. Ontarians think of themselves as reasonable, fair-minded people. Discovering themselves with an opposition led by a bombastic, self-promoting clone for Donald Trump will come as a surprise, and not necessarily a pleasant one.

Ford ran a Trump-like campaign and has many Trumpian qualities. A multimillionaire born into a wealthy and privileged family who inherited his father’s business, he nonetheless toured the province denouncing “elites” without ever identifying what he meant by the term or how he could be considered anything but one of them. He offered few policy ideas but much anger. Despite the sharply abbreviated race, Ford managed to pockmark it with moments of expect them to be obeyed.

It’s an enormous gamble. The PCs have lost four consecutive elections on bad bets. Now they’re wagering that Ontarians despise Wynne as much as Americans disliked Hillary Clinton. They’re putting a privileged white alpha male up against two left-wing women at a time gender is a major issue. He offers much to shoot at for both the ruling Liberals and third-place New Democrats. While Elliott or Mulroney might have lured away votes from disaffected Liberals, Ford focused intently on core Tories, social conservatives and the religious right, whose votes weren’t ever going anywhere else anyway.

Many Ontarians found Rob Ford’s short term as mayor an embarrassing time. His problems with drink and drugs, his sometimes goofy behaviour and the mockery it brought hit the city square in its tender ego. Rob Ford’s as well as opposing parties. A skilled campaigner like Wynne should have little trouble making him pay for his lack of discipline.

He may also find it tougher to hide his thin grasp of issues, simplistic policy notions and lack of familiarity with the shoals and eddies of provincial government. Running your Dad’s labelmaking factory isn’t the same as making sense of the vast bloated operations of government. Against as cynical and self-serving an entity as the Ontario Liberal Party, that’s a potent weakness, especially for a rookie leader who finds himself at the top of a divided party filled with people who disliked the last leader and aren’t much happier with the new one. This isn’t one big happy team, eager to pull together.

Recent history has proven it’s foolish to make predictions. Few thought Americans would elect a person like Trump. Few thought Alberta would embrace the NDP. Few could foresee the extent to which populism has come to dominate politics across continents. Germany — Europe’s most stable and successful country, took five months to form an uncertain coalition of competing forces, while Italy needed just a few days to create a chaotic assemblage of ill-equipped forces that is big on chestthumping outrage, and slim on an understanding of actually running a country.

It could happen here. Ontarians may be angered enough at Liberal excesses to give the Tories a chance, Ford or no Ford. They’ve appeared to pay little heed to the tumult in the PC ranks to date. Rural Ontario offers a solid base of support. Toronto, usually the backbone of Liberal success, is home to Ford Nation, the suburban voters blind to Ford failings.

Richmond fell not long after the Union’s failed tunnel venture. The PCs may not be down and out, though in choosing Doug Ford they made success harder for themselves and gave the Liberals hope for survival they didn’t have before Saturday.