National Post (National Edition)

ENDING NAFTA IS ‘MY GREATEST FEAR’: TRUMP’S NEW ADVISER.

WORD IS DONALD TRUMP’S NEW ECONOMIC ADVISOR, LARRY KUDLOW, CALLS IT LIKE HE SEES IT

- alexander Panetta

WASHINGTON • U.S. President Donald Trump has appointed a blunt-talking booster of trade with Canada as his top economic adviser, giving the northern neighbour a high-profile new advocate at a sensitive moment in Canada-U.S. relations.

Larry Kudlow is proNAFTA and anti-tariff — and doesn’t mince words in letting people know. The former Wall Street analyst and current cable-TV personalit­y is the new director of the White House National Economic Council, Trump’s spokeswoma­n confirmed Wednesday.

Trump had said he wanted someone whose views would clash with his own nationalis­t impulses and that’s precisely what he’s getting: in his commentary, Kudlow has been scathingly critical of protection­ist moves like steel tariffs.

His Twitter feed is filled with pro-trade tweets. In one recent radio appearance Kudlow began by criticizin­g the president’s steel and aluminum tariffs, then pivoted into a prediction of economic disaster should Trump cancel NAFTA.

“My greatest fear ... is not the steel thing but that we will walk away from NAFTA — which I think would be a calamitous­ly bad decision,” Kudlow told The John Batchelor Show a few days ago.

“It would turn business against the president ... and would, frankly, blow up the whole stock market.”

Key debates over NAFTA are likely to unfold over the coming weeks as the White House makes a long-shot effort to try wrapping up a deal by spring, and getting it ratified by the end of the year.

Kudlow replaces the likeminded Gary Cohn as head of the council; like his predecesso­r, he is likely to clash with the more protection­ist wing of the White House, embodied by trade adviser Peter Navarro, and the president himself.

Previews of the battles ahead came in that radio interview. Kudlow called U.S. trade czar Robert Lighthizer the “master” of trade-penalty laws — laws Kudlow said make no sense. He also pointed out that the person leading the steel-tariff file for Trump, Wilbur Ross, owned steel companies.

He said the U.S. has all the steel it needs, and shouldn’t be punishing its entire economy by setting tariffs to protect a tiny fraction of businesses.

“These (steel producers) want protection, they’re not competitiv­e, they’re bloated companies,” Kudlow.

“Where you lose me is when you start slapping high tariffs on commoditie­s, which protects these companies, they’re very inefficien­t, and we do not have a shortage of them.”

Ross has argued that the tariffs are legitimate under national-security law. A 1962 U.S. trade law allows emergency measures under a broad definition of national security, which could be interprete­dtomeanthe­country’s economic interest. Kudlow ridiculed that too. “Are you going to tell me that if we went into a real war — like, a major war — and we needed more steel, that Canada wouldn’t give us steel? Are you seriously telling me that?” Kudlow said.

“I mean, that’s how silly this is.”

Trump spokeswoma­n Sarah Sanders said Kudlow was offered the job, and accepted. It was actually Kudlow who announced it first in media interviews. Kudlow said he was discussing the job by phone with Trump, and, it just so happened, the president was watching TV and saw Kudlow’s face pictured.

Kudlow told the Politico site the president said: “You’re looking handsome, Larry.”

Friends and colleagues say Kudlow, 70, possesses two critical attributes prized by the president: He is a straightta­lking debater and is resolutely loyal.

In 1987, Kudlow moved to Wall Street and, though he never completed a master’s program in economics and policy at Princeton University, served as chief economist at Bear Stearns. He left that position in the early 1990s to treat an addiction to alcohol and drugs, after which Kudlow worked at Laffer’s research and consulting firm.

Kudlow soon settled comfortabl­y into the world of political and economic punditry, working at the conservati­ve National Review magazine and ultimately becoming a host of CNBC shows beginning in 2001. He has remained a contributo­r to CN- BC and a colleague and friend formanyatt­henetwork. He has his critics. The book Superforec­asting, which analyzes the attributes of what makes someone good at predicting upcoming events, uses Kudlow’s wild misses in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis as an example of what not to do.

One of the book’s core arguments is to fight back against your own biases when making a prediction, to seek contrastin­g views, and to factor everything in. Instead, it said, Kudlow’s unflappabl­e ideologica­l faith in earlier tax cuts convinced him there would be no big recession.

“As the months passed, the economy weakened and worries grew, but Kudlow did not budge. There is no recession and there will be no recession, he insisted,” says the book, by Canadian Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

“... The economy worsened but Kudlow denied it. ‘We are in a mental recession, not an actual recession,’ he wrote, a theme he kept repeating until Sept. 15, when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Wall Street was thrown into chaos, the global financial system froze, and people the world over felt like passengers in a plunging jet, eyes wide, fingers digging into armrests.”

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