U.S. growth in Q4 revised up to 2.9 per cent rate

Donald Trump

“There is nothing in today’s report that holds the economy back from its historical run to beat the 10-year expansion of the Clinton years in the 1990s.”

The current expansion is already the third longest on record and will become the second longest, surpassing the expansion of the 1960s next month.

If it lasts through June 2019, it will become the new record-holder, surpassing the 10-year expansion from March 1991 to March 2001.

The updated growth figure reflected in part more spending by consumers in services including auto repairs.

Overall consumer spending grew at the fastest pace in three years. The revision also reflected less of a slowdown in inventory rebuilding than previously thought, stronger business spending on new structures and more spending by state and local governments.

For the year, the GDP expanded 2.3 per cent, a solid rebound from a 1.5 per cent GDP increase in 2016, which had been the weakest showing since the last recession ended in 2009.

President Donald Trump often points to the pickup in growth last year as evidence that his economic program of tax cuts, deregulation and stronger enforcement of trade deals is already having a positive impact.

During the 2016 campaign, Trump promised to double growth, which has averaged a lacklustre 2.2 per cent annually since the recession ended.

While Trump has talked about hitting GDP growth of 4 per cent or better, his budget is based on an expectation that the economy will expand at average annual rates of 3 per cent over the next decade.

That forecast has been challenged as overly optimistic by private forecasters who point to the retirements of the baby boom generation and lagging productivity as factors likely to constrain growth.

But economists have been revising up their GDP forecasts for this year and 2019 based on Trump’s success in winning approval in December of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade and a February budget deal that will boost government spending on the military and domestic programs by $300 billion over the next two years.

Private economists do not expect the burst in government stimulus to last, forecasting that expected growth around 2.9 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2019 will be followed by a return to slower rates closer to 2 per cent.

Interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to guard against inflation and rising rates triggered by increasing government deficits are expected to slow growth in coming years.