Wynne bets on a red-ink renaissance

So, how does an Ontario government accused of financial mismanagement by its much-morepopular rival prepare for a looming election?

Why, bring in a budget that promises to move from surplus to six straight years of substantial deficits, of course.

The free-spending fiscal blueprint unveiled by Premier Kathleen Wynne and her finance minister last week was in some ways a political head scratcher.

But Liberal strategy for the June 7 election began taking clearer shape Thursday, as Wynne suggested Ontario is not just entering another election, but coming to a historic “tipping point.”

Voters must choose between a caring, compassionate Liberal party, she insisted in a lunchtime speech, and Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, hell bent on “taking a bulldozer” to the province.

“Doug Ford and I have a fundamentally different view of the world and government’s role in it.” Wynne said. “To pay for his business tax breaks and keep his balanced budget pledge, Doug Ford would have to slash the services that working families need.”

Just 12 months ago, of course, the Liberals tabled a balanced budget themselves and promised surpluses in coming years. “I actually believe that fiscal prudence and a strong economy are connected,” Wynne once said.

In switching gears, the latest budget appears designed partly to alter the “ballot question” for Ontario voters — what will drive them when they cast their votes in June, after 14 years of Liberal rule, pollster Greg Lyle said.

“Right now, the ballot question is ‘Who’s best able to deliver change?’ and the Liberals are losing that,” said the head of Innovative Research Group. “What they’re trying to do is make the election a referendum on who will be best able to protect social services.”

Experts suggest the budget also feeds a broader plan that — similar to the federal Liberals’ recent approach — is designed to suction up NDP votes on the left, partly by trying to scare people about the alternative on the right.

Fair or not, many voters see the NDP as an effective opposition, but not a governing party — and the Liberals are trying to capitalize on that, said Nik Nanos of Nanos Research.

“(The budget) sends a clear signal to New Democrats and progressive voters that you don’t necessarily need to elect the New Democrats to have very progressive policies.”

In her speech Thursday, Wynne trumpeted the budget’s myriad new spending initiatives, including free daycare for toddlers, free drugs for seniors and dental coverage for the uninsured, as evidence of a party that “cares.” By contrast, Ford with his promise to find spending “efficiencies” of four per cent wants only to dismantle valuable services, she charged.

Most recent polls show the Tories with a substantial lead — as much as 21 percentage points over the Liberals, and the NDP in third. But there is even more bad news for the government.

Surveys suggest they are in “a whole lot more trouble” than at the same point before the 2014 election, said Lyle. Ford is better liked than Tim Hudak, PC leader at the time, and considered the best choice for premier by more people than Wynne and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath combined, he said.

So a left-leaning deficit budget and an attacking speech might make sense.

“You have to go for the big play,” said Lyle of the Liberals. “The time for subtlety is over.”

Deb Matthews, co-chair of the party’s election campaign, denied the budget was part of any kind of political strategy.

“We’re Liberals, and we want to help each other out,” she said in an interview. “This budget really reflects the values of Kathleen Wynne and our caucus.”

For the Conservatives, the document could be seen as a gift, fuelling their narrative that the Liberals have governed irresponsibly, disregarding the priorities of ordinary Ontarians.

“It plays into the worst aspects of their record,” said a source on the Tory campaign team. “It’s completely disconnected from the reality of this province.”