One-year delay in Hill reno could cost $140M

management,” said department spokesman JeanFrançois Létourneau.

Using an analysis of the construction market and the prices of commodities, labour costs, construction and inflation, along with historic averages, he said the department forecasts added costs of about $11 million per month if parliamentarians don’t move out this summer.

“If a delay does occur, PSPC will work closely with the parliamentary partners to mitigate the potential cost increases,” Létourneau said. Any increases in cost would come on top of the existing $3-billion cost to update the whole parliamentary precinct over 20 years.

The same draft email suggested that staying could be risky, since Centre Block is approaching “a critical risk of failure.” Systems inside the building are increasingly in disrepair, it said, “which has the potential to impact parliamentary operations and the safety of occupants and visitors.”

The building “remains safe,” according to Létourneau, but “building condition assessments indicate the Centre Block’s structural, mechanical and electrical systems are at risk. The building is being monitored closely and necessary repairs are being made to mitigate risks. The health and safety of parliamentarians and visitors to Parliament are the number one priority.”

There are concerns, too, that the new Commons chamber in the West Block, and the new Senate digs down the street at the Government Conference Centre — Ottawa’s old central train station — may not be ready in time for a move this summer.

Last week, the Senate’s internal economy, budgets and administration committee heard an update from Conservative Sen. Scott Tannas, who chairs a subcommittee focused on the Senate’s “long-term vision plan.”

“We must have a high level of confidence that the facilities will be operationally ready before committing to a move date. We are not in a position today to recommend a decision for a summer move at this time,” Tannas said.

The Senate and House were supposed to decide last month whether to move this summer. That decision has been deferred to June. One won’t move without the other, so both new buildings must be ready.

“One of the issues that we’re going to be faced with in June is, if this becomes a tough call, a risky call, is we will have to weigh the fact that a delay, and particularly a delay to the following summer, would disrupt an enormous amount of planning, of small- and mediumand large-sized businesses that are contracted to come in here and begin work,” said Tannas.

“I heard a number of $100 million for a delay of one year. So the stakes are high, and the pressure is definitely on.”

About a month ago, the House’s internal board of economy was having a similar conversation.

Susan Kulba, a senior director within the Commons administration, said the decision to move for the 2018 fall session “must really be looked at, given the context of risk.”

While she reported good progress on many fronts, she said, “at this point, we’re not in a position to recommend a go or no go, as work is still progressing.”