Dismantling a nuclear deal

A LOOK AT THE IRAN AGREEMENT

Q How did this all start?

A In the early 2000s, Britain, France and Germany launched negotiations with Iran that the U.S. sat out. By October 2003, Iran suspended its nuclear enrichment program. But it resumed it again in 2006 under hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. World powers imposed crippling UN sanctions, locking Tehran out of the global economy. The Obama administration started secret talks with Iran after President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate, took office. Iran and world powers ultimately reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal, in 2015.

Q What did Iran agree to?

A Under the deal, Iran only could maintain a stockpile of 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, compared to the 100,000 kilograms of higher-enriched uranium it once had. Iran could only enrich uranium to 3.67 per cent, which can be used to fuel a reactor but is far below the 90 per cent needed to produce a weapon. The deal also limited the number of centrifuges Iran can run and restricted it to an older, slower model. Iran also reconfigured a heavy-water reactor so it couldn’t produce plutonium and agreed to convert its Fordo enrichment site — dug deep into a mountainside — into a research centre. It also granted more access to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.

Q It looks good on paper, but how was this monitored?

AThe BBC reports these IAEA inspectors checked on nuclear sites regularly to ensure nuclear materials were not moved around by Iran in secret. At 24 days’ notice, inspectors were able to gain access to sites they felt may have been suspicious. The New York Times reports that inspectors found no violations — apart from quickly solved, minor ones — in the 28 months after the deal was inked. The deal did not directly stop Iran from testing or firing ballistic missiles. It also had a series of rolling expiration dates. In 8 1/2 years, for example, Iran could start testing up to 30 more advanced centrifuges, a number it can greatly expand two years later. Fifteen years after the deal, restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment and stockpile size would have come to an end.

Q Why doesn’t Trump like it, and what is he hoping to change?

A Trump is working on the assumption that he can force Iran back to the table now, rather than later, and win a better deal for the U.S. He criticized the deal for not including Iran’s ballistic missile program or Tehran’s support of groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and its aid of embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad. With Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leading a renewed charge, the Iran deal’s opponents argued it would allow Iran to build a bomb after the deal expired in 15 years. This is something Iran has explicitly promised not to do. Trump was unconvinced.

Q Would Iran be able to build a bomb if the deal were scrapped?

A Experts say it would need at least a year to build one. Nonetheless the U.S. withdrawal and the possibility of an eventual collapse of the deal raises concerns about escalation, even war — particularly if Iran is seen as resuming its pursuit of nuclear weapons and Israel retaliates.

Q Would reimposing sanctions be a big deal for the average Iranian?

AWhen the deal was sealed, world powers lifted the crippling economic sanctions that had locked Iran out of international banking and the global oil trade. It allowed Iran to make purchases of commercial aircraft and reach other business deals. It also unfroze billions of dollars Iran had overseas. A decision by the U.S. to scrap the deal means the reimposition of U.S. sanctions, yet in Iran, many say they haven’t seen the economic benefits that President Hassan Rouhani said would flow once the sanctions were lifted. The public has been hit by spiralling inflation, fuelling nationwide protests in December and January. However, Iran’s parliamentary speaker says a U.S. pullout will lead to more unity among Iranians.

Q Anyone else pulling out of the deal?

A No. The deal was signed by the P5+1 world powers, meaning the U.S., the U.K., China, France, Germany and Russia, as well as the wider European Union. None of the aforementioned players, bar the U.S., are against the deal as it stands. European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic said Tuesday the IAEA has certified 10 times that Iran is complying with its obligations. Kocijancic said “this is not an agreement based on trust, but an agreement based on facts.”

Q What will Iran do?

A Iran’s government must now decide whether to try to salvage what’s left of the deal. Iran has offered conflicting statements about what it may do. Iran will likely keep up its criticism of the U.S., but probably won’t back out of the deal, given its business interests.