National Post (National Edition)
WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THE PRESIDENT?
SO WHAT’S NEXT FOR U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AFTER THE CONVICTION OF PAUL MANAFORT AND THE PLEA BARGAIN OF MICHAEL COHEN ON TUESDAY?
THEY WEREN’T TAKEN OUT OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE. THAT’S A BIG THING. THAT’S A MUCH BIGGER THING. DID THEY COME OUT OF THE CAMPAIGN? THEY DIDN’T COME OUT OF THE CAMPAIGN, THEY CAME FROM ME. — U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IN AN INTERVIEW WITH FOX NEWS
DID TRUMP BREAK THE LAW?
Cohen accused Trump of directing him to pay hush money to a porn star and a Playboy model in a bid to influence the 2016 election. Daniel Petalas, former prosecutor in the Justice Department’s public integrity section, said the issue of whether Trump violated the law comes down to whether Trump “tried to influence an election, whether he knew and directed it and whether he knew it was improper.” Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani said in a statement: “There is no allegation of any wrongdoing against the President in the government’s charges against Mr. Cohen.”
COULD TRUMP BE INDICTED?
Cohen’s claims would normally result in an indictment, but the broad consensus is it would be very hard to bring criminal charges against a sitting president. The U.S. Justice Department guidelines say, “The indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting president would unconstitutionally undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions.” However, the advice does not categorically rule out the possibility and the U.S. Constitution remains unclear on the issue. Sol Wisenberg, who conducted grand jury questioning of Bill Clinton as deputy independent counsel during the Whitewater investigation, said, “I’m assuming he’s not going to be indicted because he’s a sitting president. But it leads him closer to ultimate impeachment proceedings, particularly if the Democrats take back the House.”
COULD HE BECOME AN UNINDICTED COCONSPIRATOR?
In 1974, sitting president Richard Nixon was named by a grand jury as an unindicted co-conspirator in the alleged attempt to cover up the Watergate burglary and a few months later he resigned. Nick Akerman, a former Watergate prosecutor, told MSNBC that Cohen’s plea made Trump an unindicted co-conspirator. “There’s no question about it. This makes the president of the United States an unindicted coconspirator,” he said. Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, told Fox News, “If the prosecutors accept what is in this indictment, then the president just became an unindicted co-conspirator.” However, the big difference is that Nixon was actually named an unindicted coconspirator by a grand jury rather than by a couple of lawyers.
WILL TRUMP BE IMPEACHED?
Impeachment is a political, rather than legal, process. The House of Representatives and Senate would need to approve his removal from office. Currently Republicans hold majorities in both chambers, meaning Trump’s own party would have to vote him out of office and that’s not going to happen. But things could change in the November midterm elections. If the Democrats seize the House, then they could start impeachment proceedings. But even the Democrats are downplaying the possibility of impeachment. Democratic leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi said that unless other information emerges, impeaching Trump is “not a priority” for Democrats if they regain control of the House. Pelosi said she prefers to see Democrats work to ensure special counsel Robert Mueller can finish his investigation.
CAN TRUMP PARDON HIMSELF OR THOSE CONVICTED?
The president certainly believes so. He has previously said he has the power to pardon himself — a claim disputed by some lawyers — and can certainly pardon others. On Wednesday, Trump praised Manafort for not working with prosecutors, raising the question of whether a pardon could follow. The White House played down the idea. Republicans on Capitol Hill would be unlikely to favour such a move. Trump has shown he’s not afraid to use his pardon power, particularly for those he has viewed as unfair victims of partisanship. He pardoned Joe Arpaio, the former Arizona sheriff who clashed with a judge on immigration, and I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, a Bush administration official convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice in a leak case.
WHAT ABOUT THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION?
While the Manafort case was part of Mueller’s investigation, the Cohen case was not. It was handled by prosecutors in New York. Still, it could give Mueller a boost. Laurie Levenson, a former federal prosecutor and professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, argued that Cohen’s plea knocks back the argument that the investigations swirling around Trump are a “witch hunt,” as the president has called Mueller’s Russia investigation. “No longer can you say Mueller is on a witch hunt when you have his own lawyer pleading guilty to things that were designed to impact the election,” she said.
WHAT ELSE DOES COHEN KNOW ABOUT TRUMP?
Cohen’s lawyer Lanny Davis said his client had information that Mueller might be interested in. Davis said that included the “computer crime of hacking” and “whether Trump knew ahead of time about that crime and even cheered it on.” He also said Cohen might go before Congress to testify.