Couillard’s done a good job, but it might not matter

Quebec heads into an election campaign today where for the first time in 40 years, the ballot question will be about something other than sovereignty. Most Quebecers are tired of the binary federalism-versus-separatism narrative and are looking forward to a debate along the traditional left-right spectrum.

With a referendum off the table, the verdict is still out on what issue or issues will come to fill that void leading up to the Oct. 1 vote. But with the political zeitgeist across the West being what it is, the campaign could easily turn into a polarizing fight about identity and cultural issues.

With the Parti Québécois polling a distant third, the election looks to be a twoway battle between Philippe Couillard’s incumbent Liberals and the nationalist-but-not-separatist Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), led by former PQ cabinet minister François Legault.

By most objective measures, Couillard deserves reelection. His majority mandate just ending has been one of serious achievement. After tightening the fiscal belt early on, the budget has been balanced for four straight years and is now in surplus, taxes have been cut (albeit modestly), and Quebec’s unemployment rate is at historic lows.

In fact, until Doug Ford’s election, the Quebec Liberals were governing solidly to the right of Ontario for the first time in recent memory.

It is odd, then, that Couillard finds himself behind in the polls and fighting for his political life.

He is vulnerable on some economic issues, particularly the fact that Quebec continues to lag the rest of Canada on productivity, average salary and disposable income. Legault has hit Couillard on these questions and is offering some distinctions with the Liberals on economics, namely a stated desire to reduce bureaucracy and further cut taxes. Nevertheless, the population knows a Legault government would not radically change course, thus reducing the sense that a CAQ vote would be risky.

Part of the issue is voter fatigue. The Liberals have been in power for over 13 of the past 15 years and many voters seem to want change for change’s sake.

But real political cleavage comes on identity and immigration questions — issues we know have potency with a large portion of the Quebec electorate — and the majority are in Legault’s camp.

The CAQ is delivering an unabashedly populist message. Legault recently announced a CAQ government would pass a law barring government employees from wearing religious symbols, even saying he would invoke the notwithstanding clause if the law was overturned. He’s also promised a makeor-break French language test for immigrants to be taken three years after their arrival. While he hasn’t been clear on the consequences of a failing grade, the implication is they’d be kicked out.

These positions play well with francophone Quebecers — particularly those living outside of Montreal, home to most of the CAQ’S potential seat gains. Identity and immigration are hot-button topics at the dinner table and on talk radio. Sentiment against illegal immigration is particularly high given the flood of asylum seekers crossing the border from northern New York. Quebec Immigration Minister Kathleen Weil estimates that 150 refugee claimants cross each day.

Legault will probably try to make political hay out of that issue and if so, it will become the focal point of the campaign. The CAQ will position themselves as defenders of Quebec’s identity and the Liberals will wrap themselves in the shrouds of tolerance, respect and compassion.

In the end, this campaign will likely come down to whether or not the population’s desire for change and anxiety about illegal immigration outweighs its desire for continuity and stability. That’s a tough pill to swallow for Couillard because it means even if he runs a good campaign on his solid record, he might still lose. Unfortunately it’s a pill more than one politician in the Western democracies have had to swallow of late.

MANY VOTERS SEEM TO WANT CHANGE FOR CHANGE’S SAKE.