National Post (National Edition)

NAFTA explained,

- Tom Blackwell

Canada, Mexico and the United States have been haggling over an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement for over a year now.

But suddenly the heat seems to be on to have Canada sign a new NAFTA deal by the end of the week. What’s the rush?

Blame a confluence of politics and legislativ­e requiremen­ts, explained below.

WHAT HAPPENED MONDAY?

The U.S. and Mexico shook hands on an agreement in principle to update the free-trade agreement, after five weeks of talks that excluded Canada.

The three countries had been having trilateral negotiatio­ns for a year, until May. Trump said Monday he’d like Canada to join, but will move ahead without us if necessary.

DOES TRUMP HAVE THE FINAL SAY?

No, Congress has jurisdicti­on over trade and has to ratify any new trade agreement inked by the administra­tion.

DOES CANADA HAVE TO SIGN ON, TOO?

Many analysts argue that the White House can only move ahead with a trilateral revamp of NAFTA — not a bilateral deal — because that’s what it told Congress it would do over a year ago. But administra­tion officials said Monday there’s no reason Congress couldn’t approve a two-way deal with Mexico, if necessary. The consensus, though, is that all parties would ideally like NAFTA to remain a trilateral accord.

WHAT’S THE NEXT STEP?

U.S. law requires Trump to give Congress 90 days’ notice of his intention to sign a new trade deal. A text of the actual deal has to be made public at least 60 days before signing. There are several steps that must be followed after that, meaning Congress would not actually vote on the deal until next year, after mid-term elections that are expected to usher in a raft of new members.

SO, AGAIN, WHAT IS THE RUSH?

For political reasons in Mexico there is a drive to have a deal signed before the newly elected president takes office, on Dec. 1. To make that happen, given the 90-day U.S. notice requiremen­t, signatures are needed on an agreement by the end of August — ie. Friday.

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