Trans Mountain mess boggles the mind

Ruling underlines depth of federal incompetence

Fury mixed with hopelessness makes for a poisonous political stew. That’s where many Albertans are today, as last week’s pipeline rejection sinks in.

This is a truly toxic moment for the province: another sign that national projects can’t be built; further evidence that the federal consultation “process” (are you hating that word yet?) is a total flop; more months and years of selling cheap oil to the Americans.

One political result could be a fierce right-wing upsurge that will sweep the Notley government away next spring, and even the Justin Trudeau Liberals in the fall of 2019.

Both governments desperately wanted the issue to fade by next year. The project was to be under full construction. All legal hurdles were supposed to be cleared.

Thanks to three Federal Court of Appeal judges, they’ve got the opposite — continuing uncertainty and conflict well into 2019, and possibly far beyond.

Premier Rachel Notley put her faith, and possibly her future, in Ottawa’s capacity to get this done. She was repeatedly warned of how dangerous that could be.

Sadly, the critics were right. But even they couldn’t imagine the level of federal incompetence highlighted by the judges in the court ruling.

Ottawa clearly had to meet tests set in the June 2016 rejection of the Northern Gateway project.

The feds abandoned that project entirely, but vowed to do better next time. Then they failed to meet the consultation standards required for Trans Mountain.

On top of that, the court dropped a whole new bag of hammers: the further rejection based on Ottawa’s failure to consider maritime transport.

The federal and Alberta governments turned out to be wrong about everything.

The argument that knowledge of federal ownership would somehow confer special status, thereby giving the pipeline an easier ride with the courts, was false.

The economic case for the pipeline proved meaningless. So did the national interest argument. Social licences showed themselves as expensive and useless.

In the end, Trans Mountain flamed out on Indigenous consultation and the well-being of orcas.

All construction has been stopped, at so far unrevealed expense, after it had been ramped up with similar expense following Ottawa’s decision to buy.

It’s hard to imagine a more noxious political mess for everyone but the pipeline opponents.

For a moment last week, even B.C. Premier John Horgan sounded like he pitied Alberta.

There was an intense emergency session in Ottawa Tuesday, without Trudeau himself, because he was flying to B.C. to hand out transit money alongside Horgan (great optics there).

So, what might happen next? Ottawa is considering options. First, the feds can’t simply give up and consign $4.5 billion to the dumpster.

A Supreme Court challenge of the ruling is possible, but far from certain. Only Ottawa can request the court to take it on.

Notley wants quicker and more decisive action. She feels the Federal Court overstepped its bounds by including Maritime transport.

Specifically, Notley wants federal legislation that would reinstate the original NEB approval, after First Nations consultation is satisfied.

Again, this doesn’t seem likely. Legal experts, including the University of Calgary’s Dr. Nigel Bankes, say it could lead to further delays and court action, as well as being hugely controversial.

Any legal override would also be a concession that the federal “process” — the one that was supposed to get this done — didn’t work. Our process-loving PM doesn’t seem ready to admit that.

As a sidelight, there’s some talk of restarting construction inside Alberta boundaries. The legalities have to be checked, of course.

But that’s risky, too. You can imagine the harm, not to mention the expense, if B.C. construction is stalled for years under the headline: “Trudeau’s $4.5-billion export pipeline to Jasper.”

The most likely scenario may be this:

Ottawa works to meet the conditions, both Indigenous and maritime. After this, the NEB issues another approval. The federal cabinet accepts it.

All that could be done, and construction restarted, without Federal Court approval.

There would be challenges — of course. But the court, being satisfied that conditions are finally met, might refuse to hear the appeal.

Might, could, maybe — that’s the future of this pipeline, a multibillion-dollar shadow project that never quite manages to exist.

DON BRAID / POSTMEDIA NEWS Vessels linked with the federal government’s new marine spill response program in Nanaimo harbour.