National Post (National Edition)
SHADOW OF TRUMP CAST OVER ELECTION
EARLY VOTING UP AS PRESIDENT DRIVES ENGAGEMENT TO RECORD NUMBERS
WASHINGTON • He was not on the ballot, but the midterms were all about President Donald Trump.
Before election day, the president had been on a six-day rally blitz packing his closing arguments with harsh attacks on the Democrats and a hard line on immigration.
“Everything we have achieved is at stake,” he said. “Because they can take it apart just as fast as we built it.”
The results of the midterms could well cast a shadow over the rest of his presidency.
Faced with the possibility of keeping the Senate, but losing the House, aides have begun laying out the political reality to Trump, who could face an onslaught of Democratic-run investigations and paralysis of his policy agenda.
Early voting totals hit 38.5 million ballots cast, and were expected to top 40 million as states report their final tallies, according to the United States Elections Project.
That shattered records in states such as Texas and Florida, where Senate and gubernatorial contests have grabbed national attention. But early voting was also up in states where less is on the line nationally, including Maryland and North Carolina.
“Without Trump, we wouldn’t have this level of interest,” said Michael Mcdonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida who runs the United States Elections Project. “Either you love him or you hate him — he’s driving engagement in the country.”
The president had fanned the anxieties of his base as election day approached with a flurry of tweets and stump speeches warning about the dangers of a Democratic takeover and the threat posed by a migrant caravan making its way by foot from Central America to the southern border.
Forecasts suggested that Democrats would take control of the House, with the Cook Political Report classifying 70 Republican-held seats as competitive — far more than the 23 seats Democrats would need to take control. Republicans are in better shape to hold the Senate or even pick up seats as Democrats are forced to defend 10 seats in states Trump won in 2016.
When the smoke from the midterm election clears, one thing is also certain: You will be seeing the name of Robert Mueller a lot more than you have for the past two months.
For one thing, Mueller has kept himself and his investigation into Trump’s campaign deliberately out of the headlines by observing the Justice Department custom of not issuing indictments connected to politics in the 60 days leading up to an election.
With the election over, Mueller will be back into action. His team will likely have more indictments to make.
Also, if the Democrats win Congress, they will be able to initiate extensive oversight investigations into areas of Trump’s career and possible ties with Russia. That would certainly overlap with Mueller’s work, and add a further element of overt partisanship to the saga of the special counsel’s investigation and Trump’s efforts to discredit or end it.
More dramatic still, a Democratic House would have the ability to impeach Trump — even if it knew for sure that Republicans in the Senate would acquit Trump after a trial there.
That would raise the stakes considerably for whatever recommendation or report Mueller makes to Congress. Most Democrats played down the impeachment idea in the midterm campaign, judging (rightly or wrongly) that it would be more likely to turn out angry Republican voters than supportive Democratic ones.
That calculus could change with presidential elections still two years away. Impeachment would distract Trump from his agenda. It might weaken him to have to spend months or even years defending himself against detailed charges.
Rather than focus on Trump, Democrats campaigned on issues to try to take back swing districts where any mention of the polarizing president could drive voters into their corners and reduce chances of people switching sides. One approach for Democrats that appeared to have purchase was Obamacare’s protections of coverage for people with pre-existing medical conditions.
“If you look at what Democrats are running on, they’re not talking about Trump, they’re talking about issues like health care,” said Margie Omero, a Democratic strategist and pollster.
On the other side were Trump’s supporters, those who said they would back him no matter what and who pointed to strong jobs numbers and continued economic growth, plus the money they would get back from tax cuts.
Trump and Republicans have the economy on their side — unemployment in October held at a 48-year low of 3.7 per cent — but as Tuesday approached, Trump chose instead to focus on the caravan and raised the possibility of ending birthright citizenship. He deployed more than 5,000 troops to the border and suggested he may triple that number. His campaign team created a advertisement focused on the caravan that was so racially charged all the major TV networks pulled it.
A poll of the electorate by The Associated Press found 64 per cent said Trump was a factor in their vote. Voters also had a positive view of the nation’s current economic outlook — 65 per cent said the state’s economy is good. Health care was also at the forefront of voters’ minds: 26 per cent named it as the most important issue facing the country.
This election will be the most expensive midterm in history, topping out at about US$4.7 billion.