National Post (National Edition)
Worst time since 1972 to make money in markets
Market statisticians are falling over each other in 2018 to describe the pain being felt across asset classes. One venerable shop frames it this way: Things haven’t been this bad since Richard Nixon’s presidency.
Ned Davis Research puts markets into eight big asset classes — everything from bonds to U.S. and international stocks to commodities. And not a single one of them is on track to post a return this year of more than 5 per cent, a phenomenon last observed in 1972, according to Ed Clissold, a strategist at the firm.
In terms of losses, investors have seen far worse. But going by the breadth of assets failing to deliver upside, 2018 is starting to look historic.
Nothing’s working, not large or small-cap stocks in the U.S., not international or emerging equities, not Treasuries, investmentgrade bonds, commodities or real estate. Most of them are down, and the ones that are up are doing so by percentages in the low single-digits.
That’s all but unique in history. Normally when something falls, something else gains. Amid the financial catastrophe of 2008, Treasuries rallied. In 1974, commodities were a bright spot. In 2002, it was REITS. In 2018, there’s nowhere to run.
This week, optimism over a temporary trade-war truce between the U.S. and China proved short-lived.