True-ish forecasting

Chris Knight revisits his predictions for 2018

Like the dinosaurs in Jurassic Park, objects in the mirror are closer than they appear. Time to look back at some predictions made a year ago, and see how they turned out.

Prediction The pictures will get small

Outcome True: Netflix scored four Oscar nominations for Mudbound, though it didn’t win. But this year it’s film Roma has a good shot at best foreign-language film (it’s already on the nine-film nomination shortlist) and maybe even best picture.

Prediction The shine will come off Star Wars

Outcome True. Although Solo: A Star Wars Story earned $213-million and a ninth place at the box office, that’s a pittance compared to The Force Awakens ($936-million), The Last Jedi ($620-million) and Rogue One ($532-million). Disney is already slowing down a little, pushing the release of Star Wars IX from May to December.

Prediction There is no boxoffice season

Outcome True. Of the top 10 films as of this writing, six came out during the traditional blockbuster season of May/June/July. But the four that didn’t included the top spots, which went to Black Panther (February) and Avengers: Infinity War (April).

Prediction Animation will get less original

Outcome True. 2018 was a year of sequels and remakes, including Incredibles 2, Wreck-It Ralph 2, Hotel Transylvania 3, Sherlock Gnomes and How the Grinch Stole Christmas. On the other hand, there was Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs, and the amazing Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. So the original stuff was very original indeed.

Prediction Timothée Chalamet will be big

Outcome True-ish. Though he only appeared in one movie this year, the so-so Beautiful Boy, he’s already attached to six future features, including Denis Villeneuve’s remake of Dune, Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, a sequel to Call Me By Your Name, and something called The King, in which he plays Henry V.

Prediction Eighties nostalgia isn’t going anywhere

Outcome True-ish. While flawed, the ’80s-themed Ready Player One made a splash in March, while the year is closed out by Bumblebee, set in 1987 and likely to be the best-reviewed of the Transformers movies. In between, however, The Predator remake fizzled with both audiences and critics.

Prediction We’ll see more films from female directors

Outcome True-ish. Women continue to push forward, but Hollywood doesn’t change quickly. Still, 2018 saw some fine films by women, including The Rider (Chloe Zhao), Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) and Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller). That said, when it comes to box-office numbers you have to drill down 27 places to find a woman’s name with Ava DuVernay’s A Wrinkle in Time.

Prediction The box-office top 10 might all be superhero movies

Outcome False. As of this writing, just six of 2018’s top 10 are superhero movies, led by Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War and Incredibles 2. Also in the mix: Deadpool 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Venom. But Aquaman could yet muscle in there.

Prediction Movies will ditch the clichés

Outcome Not even close.