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Who will win, should win and might just upset at the 91st Academy Awards Chris Knight

The only thing you can be certain of at the Oscars is that most of the nominees will go home empty-handed and disappointed. They may expect it. They may even deserve it. But that doesn’t mean they have to like it. Here’s a list of who’ll be stealing their thunder on Sunday night, whether they merit it, and who might just upset all our predictions. (It’s happened before.)

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Roma

Should win: Roma

Possible upset: Green Book Roma has a huge list of accolades, topping many critics’ lists and winning the Directors Guild top prize, and the Golden Globe for Best Direction and Best ForeignLanguage Film. But it notably lost to Green Book at the Producers Guild Awards, and that group has matched the Academy winner in 20 of its 29 years. Also, in 2009 the Academy switched from a straight majority vote to a preferential ballot for Best Picture. That can allow a film with broad appeal (i.e., Green Book) to sneak past the finish line ahead of a more difficult (ahem, subtitled) contender. And the PGA has matched the winner in seven of the nine years since.

DIRECTING

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Should win: Cuarón Possible upset: BlacKkKlansman

Yes, Cuarón has won the Directors Guild prize. And yes, the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars have lined up five times out of six over the last half-century. But never underestimate the it’stime factor; Spike Lee has never won an Oscar, and the Academy could decide it’s time he did.

ACTOR

Will win: Christian Bale, Vice Should win: Bale

Possible upset: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Malek already has a Screen Actors award, a Golden Globe and a BAFTA (British Academy) award for his role as Freddy Mercury, so that’s a lot of momentum. And while Bale wins on the prosthetics front, Malek is playing a character you can both root for and sing along with. Of all the upsets on Oscar night, this is the most likely.

ACTRESS

Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Should win: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (She was so good!)

Possible upset: Olivia Colman Close has already won a Golden Globe, a Screens Actors prize and a slew of critical plaudits for her role in The Wife. Plus she’s been Oscar-nominated seven times without a win, and has mounted an almost political campaign for the prize. But if anyone can dethrone her, it’s Colman’s plucky Queen Anne, backed by her own Golden Globe and a BAFTA. Not to mention that her film is called The Favourite.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Should win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Possible upset: Grant Oddsmakers place him a distant second, but Grant’s performance is ACTUALLY a supporting role, whereas shrewd Oscar voters will note that Ali was in fact a co-lead in Green Book. That and the fact that the veteran British actor has never been

nominated for anything — not even Withnail & I — could be enough to swing the vote. But don’t bet on it.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Should win: King

Possible upset: Amy Adams, Vice

Not only is King’s performance in Beale Street a powerful one, it may be the only love the film sees from its three nominations (also for score and adapted screenplay) on Oscar night. But Adams, like Close, is another of those oft-nominated performers, and that can sometimes sway voters who think of her body of work. And Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone will effectively split any votes for The Favourite in this category.

ANIMATED

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Should win: Spider-Man Possible upset: Isle of Dogs When it came out last spring, Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs looked like a lock for the most creative animated film of 2018. But that was before the end-of-year release of yet another superhero movie, one that played with the conventions of the genre as well as the techniques of animation, and delivered surprising humour and heart. Dogs’ changes are slim.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE

Will win: Roma

Should win: Roma

Possible upset: Cold War. Not only is Poland’s entry in the foreign-language race a worthy contender, but we’re in uncharted Oscar waters with Roma as both a Best Picture and Best Foreign Language nominee. That’s happened twice before, with Life Is Beautiful (1998) and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000). Both won the Best Foreign Language prize but not the top prize – but neither was expected to win best picture. Roma is, which could make voters decide to spread the wealth and award another film the best foreignlanguage prize. In which case, look for Cold War to take it.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: BlacKkKlansman Should win: BlacKkKlansman Possible upset: If Beale Street Could Talk Bookies place these two tales of Black American life almost neck and neck. Beale Street, though based on a novel, is probably the more authentic, but authenticity doesn’t always win prizes.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: The Favourite Should win: The Favourite Possible upset: Green Book Sometimes the guild prizes can point the way to a possible upset. Not here, where the Writers Guild’s five nominees overlapped with the Oscars on only two – Green Book and Roma. And the WGA winner was non-Oscarnominee Eighth Grade. But Green Book’s general good-

will among voters might give it the edge in this category.

DOCUMENTARY

Will win: Free Solo

Should win: Free Solo Possible upset: RBG

The story of the life of Ruth Bader-Ginsberg is a strong second-place contender in many polls, but a potentially divisive one politically. On the other hand, who can’t get behind a rousing mountainclimbing tale like Free Solo?

SCORE

Will win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should win: Black Panther Possible upset: Mary Poppins Because of supercalifragilisticexpial-nostalgia.

SONG

Will win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Should win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Possible upset: “All the Stars,” Black Panther

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Roma

Should win: Roma

Possible upset: Cold War Cold War is the other black and white nominee, and one of three foreign-language nominees in the category, alongside Germany’s Never Look Away.

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: The Favourite Should win: Black Panther Possible upset: Black Panther Period costumes generally take the prize, but I’d argue it’s much more difficult to create new, culturally appropriate costumes that also look real.

FILM EDITING

Will win: Vice

Should win: The Favourite (for its comic timing) Possible upset: Bohemian Rhapsody (for its rhythmic timing)

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Vice

Should win: Vice

Possible upset: Vice There’s no contest here with the other two nominees, Mary Queen of Scots and Border.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will win: The Favourite Should win: First Man Possible upset: Black Panther The Favourite and Black Panther are both beautiful films, but come on, First Man’s production designers had to design and produce the moon!

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win: Avengers: Infinity War

Should win: First Man Possible upset: First Man Again; the moon, people!

SOUND EDITING

Will win: First Man

Should win: First Man Possible upset: A Quiet Place A Quiet Place would be the ironic choice.

SOUND MIXING

Will win: A Star Is Born Should win: First Man Possible upset: Bohemian Rhapsody