National Post (National Edition)
FORD’S LUCK ISN’T ENDLESS
Luck plays a big part in successful politics. Jean Chrétien might never have won three majorities if the Conservatives hadn’t spent a decade divided against themselves. Donald Trump probably wouldn’t be president if the Democrats hadn’t nominated an even less-likable candidate to oppose him. Doug Ford wouldn’t be Ontario’s premier if Patrick Brown hadn’t fallen off a credibility cliff a year ago.
Ford’s luck continued. He was able to win a rushed leadership race by quickly out-organizing his opponents, earning the chance to run against an increasingly and astonishingly unpopular premier heading a tired and decrepit old government.
It’s open to question whether Ford appreciates this, as he’s running his government like he was Justin Trudeau at the peak of his popularity. Trudeau’s recent problems have been yet another instance of Ford’s great good fortune, as the intensity of attention on Ottawa has diverted some of the focus that might otherwise have been directed at him.
With its initial budget due on April 11, this is a big moment for the province’s first Tory government in 15 years, and it’s not clear things are going great.
Some of the issues are minor. While Trudeau was defending his honour in Ottawa, Ford was in one of those silly quibbles that politicians seem incapable of avoiding. Good premiers travel a lot. Ford apparently prefers driving to flying, and inquired about acquiring a van with a bunch of conveniences deemed by the press and opposition to be open to question. Did he really need the TV with the Blu-ray player? The reclining leather couch?
So far there is no actual van, just some estimates, and a lot of the alleged details may have been exaggerated, but no matter. Do new premiers or their aides never read history? Did they not understand pundits and opposition parties live for these stories? If Ford, as he says, actually sought a used vehicle that would save on airfare, he should have announced it himself, rather than allow partisan leaks to establish the plot.
That’s a small issue, but it reflects a tendency to underthink situations that has become a Ford hallmark. Last week Ron Taverner, a family friend and middlelevel Toronto cop, finally rescued him from a wholly unnecessary controversy the premier created when he named Taverner to the top policing job in the province. Whether Taverner was qualified to head the Ontario Provincial Police remains up to debate, but by hoisting him over more senior, more obvious candidates Ford all but shouted that he wanted to reward a longtime buddy, and didn’t care what people thought. He refused to back down in spite of deep public doubts and widespread criticism. Taverner did him a big favour by withdrawing, though he could have saved Ford from considerable selfinflicted damage if he’d acted far sooner.
The budget offers a chance to get back on track. The Tories have made big promises: a total revamp of health care, serious progress on defusing the debt bomb the Liberals left behind, important reforms in education, smarter spending without cutting any jobs …
It’s obvious they’ve been working on their pledges. Health Minister Christine Elliott unveiled sweeping changes to the health system in an event all but obliterated by the circus surrounding Jody Wilson-raybould. The revamp is so profound the outcome is difficult to predict, the details such that even experts will need time to sort them out. One major concern goes to the heart of the change: why is a conservative government, hostile to years of Liberal micromanagement, establishing a giant super-agency to centralize control of the singe biggest and most expensive responsibility it holds?
Elliott has one of the better reputations in cabinet, and will need it with this giant undertaking. No one can expect such a complex operation to take place without missteps and setbacks. New Democrat opposition leader Andrea Horwath has made clear every slip will be greeted with accusations of creeping privatization. If the Tories are to live or die on one issue, health care is a leading candidate.
Spending is another key issue, with mixed signals on progress. Ford ordered a public-sector hiring freeze before he was even sworn in. Recently a memo went out to school boards suggesting they “exercise prudence in making hiring decisions” until they see what’s in the budget. Ford sensibly cancelled a minimum wage hike due this year, after an earlier Liberal-ordered increase forced employers to cut back on staff while paying more to others. And an outdated emissions-testing program for passenger vehicles was curtailed, meaning one less needless annoyance for most drivers.
Finance Minister Vic Fedeli announced this year’s deficit will be $1 billion less than expected at $13 billion. But if Ford hoped to win acclaim as a tight-fisted spending hawk, he has room for improvement. His ongoing fixation with the provincial power distributor, Hydro One, has already cost close to $200 million in unanticipated expenses after a Us$4.4-billion takeover of U.S. utility Avista fell apart when U.S. regulators complained of political interference in Ontario.
Ford’s pledge to fire Hydro One’s chief executive officer over his generous pay package helped get him elected, but months later he continues to devote time to meddling with executive salaries, sparking a new confrontation by demanding the new CEO’S package be capped at $1.5 million. Fear of ongoing interference is having an impact on Hydro One’s share price and concerns over its credit rating, which could add significant costs down the road.
If Ford is paying more than cursory attention to Trudeau’s troubles, it should awaken him to the reality that public sentiment can change quickly. He’s not immune to that risk, and is already playing with fire by reviving a practice that helped destroy his predecessor’s credibility.
A private fundraiser touted as the biggest in Ontario’s history charged $1,250 a person for 3,200 tickets, and featured Ford boasting of the government’s accomplishments to date. While lucrative, the event was a highly dubious reminder of the much-reviled cash-for-access practices of the previous Liberal government, which seriously tarred the reputation of former premier Kathleen Wynne and forced the Liberals into embarrassing reforms. In reversing some of Wynne’s changes, Ford did himself no favours with Ontarians desiring cleaner government.
There is a lot of room, and plenty of time, for the Ford government to get the big things right. But they diminish their political capital and supply of goodwill with needless stumbles over less critical issues. Good fortune will only take the premier so far if he keeps tripping over himself.
IF THE TORIES ARE TO LIVE OR DIE ON ONE ISSUE, HEALTH CARE IS A LEADING CANDIDATE.