FIVE MYTHS ABOUT FUTURE VEHICLES

1

Recent studies hold that families will need

fewer cars and that many people will opt for “mobility as a service.” In reality, a lot of people will have the same inclinations as today, to own a private car and use it the way they want, without compromises. Owning a non-autonomous car will, for many, be cheaper than buying a self-driving car or hailing a ride for some time to come.

AUTONOMOUS CARS WILL MEAN FEWER

PRIVATE ONES

2 SELF-DRIVING CARS WILL FIX CONGESTION

Without careful management, autonomous vehicles will make traffic worse. City-centre parking is expensive, which creates an incentive to keep moving. This means self-driving cars will slowly cruise the streets, by the thousands, as they await their next ride or duty.

3 AVS WILL REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

McKinsey has claimed that self-driving cars could reduce traffic-related CO2 emissions by as much as 60 per cent. But autonomous-vehicle software can be applied to existing hardware; both electric and gasoline-powered automobiles can be self-driven. Electric-powered vehicles’ environmental impact will depend on the source of that electricity: Are they charged by power from coal, gas, wind or solar?

4 THE AUTO INSURANCE INDUSTRY WILL SHUT DOWN

AVs carry the promise that human error in driving can be eliminated. KPMG predicts this could result in an overall contraction of the auto insurance market by 60 per cent by 2050. But AVs will make mistakes, and computers will crash, injuring or killing people and damaging property. And a new risk will be that AVs can be hacked by malign actors.

5 AVS ARE ALREADY SAFER THAN HUMAN DRIVING

In aviation, safety is underpinned by universal standards and exacting formal testing, which aren’t yet in place for autonomous vehicles. Driverless cars still seem to behave in ways that lead to collisions with human-operated vehicles.

The Washington Post