Ford made the right call. Tougher ones lie ahead

1,600 Ontarians could die of virus this month alone

Earlier this week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he hesitated to release projections for COVID-19 deaths because people might panic. It was an uncharacteristic misstep in what has otherwise been his impressive performance on the pandemic file. The quickest way to cause a panic is to tell people that something is so scary you can’t give them the details.

On Friday, Ford fixed that mistake and released the data, but it was easy to see why he had been concerned. According to the government’s projections, up to 15,000 Ontarians could die over two years before the pandemic is over. That’s if existing social and economic restrictions stay in place. A return to what we used to call “normal” would cause many more deaths. The bright note, if there is one, is that additional restrictions and targeted measures could cut the death toll to as few as 3,000.

As a start, the Ontario government on Friday ordered new and non-essential construction to stop. The government is also going to put a lot more effort into testing people who have been in contact with those who have the virus. That’s a technique that helped South Korea quickly contain the virus, but there it was employed as a first line of defence, not a last resort.

Is the idea of 15,000 deaths over two years panic-inducing? That depends on how one chooses to look at it. A numbers person might say that the 15,000 constitutes just 0.1 per cent of Ontario’s population. A more compassionate view would argue that 15,000 is still a lot of people.

Ford is clearly in the latter camp. On Friday he made an emotional plea for Ontarians to do everything possible to save lives. This month alone, Ontario predicts that 1,600 people could die of the virus. If people strictly observe the stay-at-home rules in place and additional restrictions help, that number could shrink to 200.

That gives the public an achievable target for April. Stay home, save up to 1,400 lives. That seems like a reasonable thing to ask.

The projected hospital situation is the other factor that ought to persuade people to comply with severe restrictions on work and life. The new numbers say that if the best-case scenario takes place, the province should be just able to meet the demand for intensive care beds. The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, shows demand spiking well above bed capacity, even with the assumption that 900 additional beds will soon be made available.

One bit of good news: The government’s experts project that by the end of April our aggressive attack on the virus will have prevented 220,000 people from getting sick and 4,400 people from dying. That’s a big payback for the collective effort that has been made so far.

The government’s effort is focused on right now, but the big question of what’s next remains to be answered. How and when will economic and social life start to return to something like normal?

We were given only small hints Friday. Dr. Peter Donnelly, the head of Public Health Ontario, referred to blood tests that would allow those who have developed immunity through exposure to get back to work. No timeline was given for that important move.

At some point, the government will need to consider when to move from blanket measures to more targeted initiatives. The new numbers tell us that of the province’s 67 deaths recorded as of Friday, 60 were people over 60 years old. No one under 40 has died, but the mortality rate for those over 80 is 15.9 per cent.

The high rate among the elderly is driven by a terrible outbreak at a single nursing home in Bobcaygeon, where 21 people have died. The government keeps talking about “putting an iron ring” around seniors’ facilities, but it’s certainly not airtight. Protecting the most vulnerable is the best way to reduce deaths.

This has been a tough few weeks for Ontarians and their government, but more difficult decisions lie ahead. Shutting down the economy and restricting people’s movements to save lives is a relatively easy decision to make in the short term. It’s a lot harder to weigh the economic and psychological damage that these unprecedented restrictions cause against potential loss of life.

Ultimately, that’s something Doug Ford will have to do.

Postmedia News Randall Denley is an Ottawa

political commentator and former Ontario PC candidate.

Contact him at randalldenley1@gmail.com