Canada looks to set up ‘surge’ force for second COVID wave

Eyes use of cellphone data in contact-tracing

OTTAWA • Federal and provincial health officials are recruiting small armies of staff and examining technology options such as cellphone location data as they ramp up Canada’s capacity to do contact-tracing.

Contact-tracing involves tracking recent contacts of anyone who’s tested positive for COVID-19, and monitoring those contacts for symptoms and the potential need for testing and self-isolating. It’s key to stopping an uncontrolled outbreak in a community.

Canada is still in its “first wave” of infections, and officials have said the best course of action for now is to have everyone stay home. But once the first wave fully subsides — likely sometime in the summer — extensive testing and contact-tracing should allow Canada to start re-opening its economy and lift some of the physical-distancing restrictions.

“As we get this first wave under control, the absolute key is having sensitive systems to detect any new cases and then to do rigorous contact-tracing around those cases,” said Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, on Friday.

Tam said provincial health agencies are responsible for their own contact-tracing programs, but the federal government is co-ordinating support measures.

A huge challenge is simply having the staff resources to do all the phone calls and follow-up monitoring. Provinces have been doing callouts to medical students and retired health-care workers, but the federal government is also pulling together a national database for provinces to tap into.

The Public Health Agency of Canada said this includes assigning some federal civil servants to help provinces who need the extra staff.

“The first stage was to enlist qualified federal public servants, who are currently not in roles essential to ongoing federal work, to work in those jurisdictions feeling the most pressure,” said a statement to National Post.

The second stage includes a volunteer recruitment campaign and “reaching out to faculties of health, public health, and science across the country to disseminate a call for interested individuals to register in the inventory,” the statement said. “A third stage will reach out to all health professional and health science associations for retirees or individuals currently not engaged in the COVID-19 response.”

Tam said they are working on a “surge” capacity of staff that can be deployed when a region sees a new outbreak. “We’ve been monitoring and forecasting so if there’s increasing cases, which then means increasing contacts, we’re there to support the surge if needed,” Tam said.

Technology will also play an increasingly important role in contact-tracing, but health officials are still deliberating over the best course of action. Cellphone location data is central to this discussion, and has been put to use in other countries such as Singapore, but it also raises thorny questions about privacy.

Meanwhile, on Friday the RCMP announced new powers aimed at enforcing the Quarantine Act. The police force said officers could visit homes to ensure anyone entering Canada is self-isolating for 14 days, and police can now make arrests, rather than issue a court appearance notice or summons.

The RCMP said arrests under the act, violations of which could include a fine of up to $750,000 and imprisonment for six months, will be a last resort.

In his daily briefing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he was not planning to invoke the Emergencies Act, which would give the federal government sweeping powers.

He reminded Canadians that vigilance against future outbreaks will be the norm for the next 12 to 18 months until a vaccine is developed, but hinted that regulatory changes could bring relief in the summer.

“It is possible we may be out of that wave this summer, and at that point we will be able to talk about loosening up some the rules that are in place,” Trudeau said.

He said some people may be able to return to work to “get things rolling again,” though those changes will require a cautious approach.

Trudeau will be at the House of Commons on Saturday as the government attempts to pass the

THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME IS NO EASY PATH FOR ANY OF US.

wage-subsidy bill, which would give companies a 75-per-cent subsidy on each employee’s wages.

On Thursday, federal health officials released modelling that showed that even under a best-case scenario, with strong public health measures in place, Canada may see 11,000 to 22,000 deaths before the pandemic is over. Under the worst-case scenario with no measures in place, the model showed deaths would easily top 300,000.

The modelling did provide some good news. Canada is still at an earlier stage of the pandemic than the hardest-hit countries, meaning the widespread lockdowns brought in last month have a better chance of flattening the curve.

“Our health-care systems across the country are coping for the time being,” Trudeau said Thursday. “But we’re at a fork in the road between the best and the worst possible outcomes. The best possible outcome is no easy path for any of us.”