Ontario better hope it can jump economy

Risk assessment must first be conducted

The Ontario government is studying how to restart the provincial economy, but there are important steps it can take now, steps that will lay the groundwork for a return to economic normality.

First, the government needs to offer the best analysis it can of the short- and long-term damage caused by the economic shutdown. The public needs to see a companion piece to the report that outlined the potential number of infections and deaths from COVID-19. That was offered with only a tentative grasp of what’s likely to happen next, but it has driven government policy ever since.

Government officials describe the health effects of the pandemic daily. The economic impact receives far less attention, although it will be widespread, long-lasting and costly. Ontarians need to know the economic cost and how much it increases with each month of extreme economic shutdown. That’s essential to put the health risks in a broader context.

The numbers we have seen so far are certainly startling. Ontario lost 403,000 jobs in March and that was with only two weeks of economic shutdown. It was still four times the greatest previous monthly job loss. Even that massive number understates the real economic impact, according to a new analysis Thursday from the province’s financial accountability office. It estimates that about 1.2 million workers were directly affected by the shutdown, either by job loss or sharply reduced hours. That’s almost one job in six in the province.

All of that is just the beginning. A Conference Board of Canada report earlier this week predicted that the province will lose an additional 572,000 jobs by the end of June, pushing the unemployment rate to 13.5 per cent. That might be optimistic. The board assumes that job restrictions will gradually ease beginning in May and that the economy will start to return to normal in September. The provincial government has provided no such clarity.

On the public health side, the provincial government is moving slowly toward an unspecified level of risk that will be deemed low enough to start reopening so-called non-essential businesses. On the economic side, more and more permanent damage is taking place every day.

Ontario Chamber of Commerce president Rocco Rossi says that the average small business has financial reserves to carry it for no more than 30 days. Come Wednesday, it will have been exactly 30 days since the province ordered non-essential businesses to close.

Ontario Finance Minister Rod Phillips is heading a cabinet committee that is consulting widely on the best way to turn the economy back on. There is no fixed deadline for reporting back to the public on the plan, but one certainly hopes there is a sense of urgency.

While that work continues, the government should be assessing the safety of the workplaces that are open, for the sake of employees and the public. Let’s start with grocery stores. The scary rhetoric about COVID-19 could create the impression that grocery employees are risking their lives daily. Are they? How many have actually become infected and what is the real risk? That’s the kind of information that could reassure both shoppers and workers.

People should also expect government to clearly define best safety practices for consumer businesses and make sure they are being followed. Every store seems to handle things differently. There are long lineups to get into places like Costco or the LCBO and people often fail to stay the necessary six feet apart. Who should be dealing with that? What are the best safety protections for workers, and are employers putting them in place?

A full-scale effort on workplace inspection and compliance

SAFETY STANDARDS AND PROOF THEY WORK (ARE NEEDED).

would seem a more beneficial way to use bylaw officers’ time than having them chase after people walking on the grass in public parks.

In an interview, Phillips agreed that determining what’s really safe in workplaces that are open is critical to safely reopening other businesses. Good to know, but it would be nice to see action.

Real, demonstrable safety standards and proof that they work are critical to reopening the economy because there is a well-placed fear that both workers and customers will be reluctant to come back, even when businesses are open. The provincial government has done a tremendous job of turning on the terror tap, but it will need facts and evidence to turn it off.

Stopping and restarting an economy is an unprecedented experiment. Ultimately, the provincial government will need to balance the risk of more viral infections and deaths against the certainty of greater economic devastation. It’s an unattractive equation, but the sooner the public sees both sides of it, the better.

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