SIX THINGS ABOUT THE GLOBAL POPULATION FORECAST

1 TO PEAK AT 9.7 BILLION IN 2064

The world’s population is expected to peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064 before falling back by almost a billion by the start of the next century, according to a study published Tuesday in The Lancet. The report’s projected global population of 8.8 billion in 2100 is around 2 billion lower than some previous estimates. It represents a huge challenge to world leaders to rethink policies to cope with changing demographics and their consequences; as Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, says: “The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilization.”

2

PLUMMETING FERTILITY RATES

The key factors in generating widespread, sustained declines in fertility are improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women. All but seven of 195 countries surveyed are predicted to have falling fertility rates by 2100, according to estimates at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s school of medicine.

3

NUMBERS HALVED

More than 20 countries are expected to see their populations shrink by more than half, including Italy, Spain, Japan and Thailand. Even in Niger, where the fertility rate was the highest in the world in 2017 — with women having an average of seven children — the rate is projected to decline to around 1.8 by 2100. That compares with the 2.1 figure to sustain population. This contrasts with the UN’s consistent projections of continued global growth.

4

GERIATRIC POWER

The over-80s will outnumber under-fives by two to one.

5 NIGERIA COMING FROM BEHIND

Big shifts in global power will see Africa increasingly important. Nigeria will join the U.S., China and India as the world’s leading economic powerhouses, the report suggests. China is set to replace the U.S. as the largest economy in 2035.

6

OPENING BORDERS

Immigration will be key to the health of most economies. It will support the U.S.’s return to being the world’s economic superpower in 2098, the report predicts.