National Post (National Edition)
NBA playoffs should be predictable
After months of no basketball the NBA is set to return to the hardwood at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Fla., on July 30.
However, only 22 teams (nine from the Eastern Conference and 13 from the West) have a chance of making it to the playoffs with the other eight ending their regular season early. Each team invited to vie for the post-season will first play eight games to finish the regular season before entering the traditional 16-team NBA playoff format.
It’s a new wrinkle, but one that figures to produce the same results we’d expect had the season concluded normally.
For example, at the time of the shutdown, the Milwaukee Bucks were 53-12, giving them a seven-win cushion on the Toronto Raptors, who are the No. 2 seed in the East.
Using their actual winloss record; their expected win-loss record based on points scored and allowed, also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage; and their regressed winloss record, to account for a small sample size of games played, we can simulate the restart and pencil Milwaukee in for 59 wins at the end of the next eight games, giving it the same seven-game cushion heading into the post-season. In fact, none of the teams qualifying for the post-season at the time play was suspended are in significant jeopardy of losing their spot.
There might be some slight seed changes — the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers could switch places with each other, as could the Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks — but they were all expected to be playoff teams under normal circumstances, too, leaving little drama as the start up begins.
Not even the teams below the eighth-seed line (Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns) will provide much of a spark.
If any of those teams get within four games of the eighth seed they would trigger a play-in tournament, which would then decide who will face the top seed in the conference.
For the Wizards, that’s a tough task. Forward Davis Bertans, the team’s best three-point shooter, opted out last month. Two-time all-star guard Bradley Beal announced he will not play in the NBA restart because of shoulder injury. Guards Gary Payton II and Garrison Mathews plus centre Thomas Bryant did not travel with the team to Orlando after testing positive for the novel coronavirus. And point guard John Wall, a fivetime all-star selection, also remains unavailable after suffering an Achilles tendon injury in January 2019.
The Wizards (24-40) are 5½ games back of the No. 8 seed Orlando Magic (30-35), meaning they need to close the gap by 1½ games for a play-in opportunity at the post-season. We saw that happen in less than two per cent of our simulations, giving them odds of roughly 55 to 1 against.
The Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Kings are each 3½ games behind the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies in the West. The Trail Blazers get centre Jusuf Nurkic and power forward Zach Collins back in the lineup and the Pelicans will welcome back rookie of the year runner-up Zion Williamson to the fold, bolstering each team’s chances to make the final post-season cut. Based on our simulations all three teams currently on the outside looking in should be in a position to force their way into the play-in round. In terms of excitement produced by this format, however, that’s about the extent of it.
Remember, the prize is a date with the top seed in the first round of the playoffs, so whichever squad makes the cut likely will see a quick exit. Since 2003, the first year the first round was changed from a best-of-five to a best-of-seven series, the No. 1 seed has a 124-35 record (.780 winning percentage) against the No. 8 seed. The series record is 31-3 with a dozen sweeps.
If the Wizards play the Bucks they would have less than a one per cent chance of beating Milwaukee in a seven-game series with a sweep occurring more than half the time (59 per cent). The Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Kings would suffer a similar fate against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Each would have less than a three per cent chance of beating the Lakers over a seven-game series, with a sweep likely in almost half of the outcomes for each team.
The top contenders for the NBA title, the Bucks, Lakers and L.A. Clippers, also remain at the top of the list after the restart. Milwaukee suffers a slight decrease from 39 to 35 per cent in its title odds but remains the front-runner for the 2020 NBA title.