National Post (National Edition)
Future vision will be key to O'Toole's success
SO MUCH OF THE ZERO-SUM THINKING REFLECTED IN CONTEMPORARY POLITICS IS THE RESULT OF PEOPLE'S REDUCED EXPECTATIONS. — SEAN SPEER
Erin O'Toole's first 25 days or so as Conservative party leader have been interesting to say the least. He's been quick to define himself as a different kind of Conservative who supports trade unions, talks about “solidarity” and is less concerned about the country's gross domestic product than he is about the well-being of working families. These aren't the messages or themes that most people tend to associate with conservatism.
O'Toole's working-class gambit reflects a broader political realignment that's occurring across the Anglosphere. One of the main political stories of the past quarter century or so is the shift of non-university educated, working-class voters from the left to the right. There are various explanations for it including the transition from a goods-producing economy to a service-based economy, an acceleration of cultural and demographic changes, and a growing values-based divide between post-materialists and those “left behind.”
Although there are disagreements about the causes of these trends, there's little dispute about their political effects. Left-wing political parties have increasingly become representative of urban, educated, progressive voters and conservative parties have come to comprise rural, less-educated, traditional voters. This realignment is reshaping politics in the United States, United Kingdom, and elsewhere in advanced economies.
O'Toole's goal is to hasten a similar political realignment in Canada. Notwithstanding comparable trends here, there are still hundreds of thousands of working-class voters across the country who aren't voting for the Conservative party.
So the question for O'Toole and his team is: what is your realignment strategy to bring them into the party's fold?
His early focus on the “nobility of work” is a good start. The key now will be to give it policy expression. This column has previously made the conservative case for wage subsidies to help those who lose their jobs due to technology and trade. There are also good arguments for investment incentives targeting rural and economically-distressed places, better savings options for gig workers and the self employed, and shifting the federal government's footprint from Ottawa into the regions.
But a realignment strategy requires more than just technocratic responses to the immediate challenges facing working-class people. It must also respond to their declining optimism about the future.
Political strategist-types tend to discourage politicians from talking about the future. The assumption is that voters are too self-interested and short-term oriented to be concerned about a long-term vision. There's also a worry that talk of the “jobs of tomorrow” sounds threatening to working-class people. The safer politics is to promise tax credits or cash payments in the here and now.
This thinking is flawed on two grounds. The first is that it underestimates the extent to which people are actually motivated by their perceptions of the future for them and their families. And in the absence of a positive vision of the future, they can succumb to negativism about the present. So much of the zero-sum thinking reflected in contemporary politics is the result of people's reduced expectations. We've come to collectively believe that a different and better future isn't possible and in turn we've become increasingly polarized and pessimistic as polls consistently show.
The second is that it fails to recognize that we're not just passive observers of the future. We have an active role to play in defining and shaping it. But that requires us to recognize that the long-run isn't just a series of short-runs. We need to talk and debate about the future. That's the only way that we'll ultimately get a clear, coherent vision that's different and better than the present.
O'Toole's realignment strategy currently lacks such a picture of the future. That may be defensible in the immediacy of the COVID-19 crisis. But if he's to galvanize working-class voters (including those who didn't cast a ballot in 2019), he will eventually need to put forward a positive conservative futurism that speaks to the public's elusive search for renewed optimism.
A conservative futurism could take various forms. It might focus on leveraging innovation and technology to make Canada an “agriculture superpower” that can dominate global market share in various commodities, produce wealth and opportunity at home, and address food security abroad. It could advance a stem cell strategy that draws on Canadian medical and scientific expertise to pursue curative therapies for a wide range of diseases including diabetes, Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's. Or it may champion new sources of cheap, reliable and environmentally-efficient energy such as nuclear technology through small modular reactors.
The form matters less than the vision itself. The key here is for the Conservatives to start to define a compelling future for the country rooted in growth, dynamism and opportunity.
O'Toole has had an exciting first 25 days as Conservative leader. But his ability to achieve a political realignment will ultimately depend on whether he can put forward an optimistic vision for the next 25 years.