National Post (National Edition)
In Josh the Bills fans trust
FREIGHT TRAIN RUNNER WITH A CANNON ARM IS LEARNING TO PLAY QB — AND LOOKS LIKE AN MVP
Josh Allen has emerged through the season's first four weeks as one of the most improved and interesting players in the NFL, sneaking into the periphery of the MVP debate.
He has captained the Bills to a 4-0 start, authored a barrage of highlights, and ranks second in the league in passing yards (1,326) and third in touchdown passes (12) while completing 70.9 per cent of his throws and running for three more scores.
The fate of the Bills' season, now that Buffalo has emerged as a contender to unseat the New England Patriots in the AFC East, may rest on whether Allen really is different this season, if he has harnessed his immense physical talent. The Bills have constructed a talented roster around him, and co-ordinator Brian Daboll has concocted an offence suited to his strengths. If Allen fulfils what Buffalo saw in him when it made him the seventh overall pick in 2018, the Bills may rival Baltimore as Kansas City's foremost conference challenger.
Allen has polarized insiders since he became a draft prospect. Draft experts argued about the meaning of his subpar college completion percentage. Scouts drooled over his 6-foot-5 frame, cannon arm and freight train running ability.
Advanced statistics ranked him at the bottom of the league owing to inaccuracy and a penchant for mistakes. Bills fans adore him for his moxie, talent and results — he led the Bills last year to their second playoff game (and first playoff touchdown) since the 1999 season.
“Bills Mafia hates us,” Sam Monson, the lead NFL analyst for statistics website Pro Football Focus, said with a laugh. “There are T-shirts. They think we hate Josh Allen. They think we hate the Bills generally. It's understandable. Fans trade on hope, and Josh Allen fashions an endless amount of hope.”
Buffalo's 35-32 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3 may have been the quintessential Allen performance, a display of both his potential and how he can undermine it. As Buffalo built a 28-3 lead, Allen accounted for four touchdowns. As the Rams erased the deficit, Allen threw an interception, lost a fumble and drew a 15-yard penalty for dragging a defender to the ground by his face mask.
But he also converted a third and 22 with a rocket to Cole Beasley and fired a game-winning touchdown pass with seconds remaining.
For his first two seasons in the league, Allen was perhaps the player most likely to fool modern NFL consumers. His instincts to tuck the ball and run in the face of pressure combined with his athleticism led to high rushing totals and delight for fantasy owners. Any Sunday of NFL RedZone viewing inevitably included an Allen highlight — a laser throw few quarterbacks on the planet could make, a leap over a defender, a moment that made you tumble off your couch.
In between those plays, Allen accumulated the statistical resume of one of the league's worst quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus last season graded him 28th out of 39 quarterbacks who took at least 150 drop backs — right behind Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton,
Daniel Jones and Mitchell Trubisky.
In Pro Football Focus's grading and statistical evaluation, Allen's deep flaws — inaccurate passing and putting the ball at risk — overrode his stellar moments. Allen was the NFL's worst quarterback on passes thrown more than 20 yards in the air, a combination of inaccurate and risky when passing deep. On plays from a clean pocket, one of the most stable indicators of quarterback performance, Allen ranked in the eighth percentile. PFF tracks a quarterback's negative plays, which can include everything from poor throws to avoidable fumbles. Allen's negative play percentage ranked worst in the NFL.
Some numbers even reflected the conflict between how Allen could be astonishing to the eye but still inefficient. Even while ranking as PFF's 31st-most accurate passer overall, he graded in the middle of the league in accuracy-plus passes, throws that hit a receiver in the perfect spot. Allen was usually bad, but when he wasn't, he was great.
“He's always been the definition of a can-do player,” Monson said. “The NFL is very focused on what guys can do. This guy can make all the throws. He can make all these spectacular, athletic plays. He can throw the ball 75 yards. But how often do they happen, and what happens in between? That's always been the problem area for Allen. It's not his ceiling. It's not what he's able to do. It's what happens between the spectacular plays. That's where he's struggled in the past. It's also the thing that's been moving in his direction.”
Through four games, Allen has minimized his mistakes while accentuating his strengths. Pro Football Focus rates him the NFL's sixthbest quarterback, just ahead of reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. His underlying performance suggests sustainable improvement.
Last year, he completed 18 passes thrown more than 20 yards all season; he has completed 11 already this year, and he has jumped to the top 10 of PFF's deep passing rankings. He's a little below league average on negative-play percentage, rather than dead last.
It would be precarious to assume Allen's improvement will stick based on four games. But his leap has been so large, Monson said, that Allen has “reset the bar” on his performance. Even regression would make Allen a far better quarterback in his third season than his first two.
Sudden improvement is a logical conclusion to Allen's unique development. In an era of seven-on-seven seasons and quarterback gurus, Allen had an unsophisticated quarterback upbringing. He grew up on a farm in small-town central California playing three sports, whichever was in season. He spent a year at junior college before choosing Wyoming over Eastern Michigan, the only other school that offered him a scholarship.
Allen broke his collarbone during the first game of his sophomore season, and sitting out enabled him to learn the position and improve his strength and conditioning. He remained raw as he took over as Wyoming's starter the next year, completing less than 60 per cent of his passes. When plays broke down, Allen conjured magic with improvisational instincts honed from years of playing other sports. When they went to plan, he had trouble discerning coverages and making accurate throws.
“He made a lot of plays that were spectacular,” said Brent Vigen, Wyoming's offensive co-ordinator and quarterbacks coach during Allen's tenure. “But he had his fair share of easy plays that he didn't make ... When a play broke down, his ability to do things, that's almost innate. Or it was developed because that's the way he was brought up. On the flip side, his foundation for the simple things maybe wasn't there.”
Those flash plays caused scouts and agents to start swarming. Allen considered entering the draft before staying for his senior year. Three offensive teammates departed for the NFL, and Allen's superficial statistics suffered. But even though Allen's 56.3-per-cent completion percentage made him a risky bet based on precedent, NFL evaluators were eager to take it. One executive whose team picked in the top 10 in 2018 said Allen was an easy top-10 selection, considered by many to be the second-best quarterback in the draft behind top pick Baker Mayfield.
The trait that Allen is rarely given enough credit for, Vigen believes, is his competitive intelligence — his willingness to identify what he needs to improve. Vigen had watched Allen mature over the years in his ability to attack those weaknesses.
Allen worked this off-season with personal quarterback coach Jordan Palmer, the former NFL quarterback and Carson's brother, and Bills quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey. They worked on his mechanics, but not as much as they focused on how he processed plays. With a better understanding of defences and his own offence,
Allen became a calmer, more accurate passer.
“Diving into the playbook as much as we did, I feel like I know answers to the questions,” Allen said earlier this season. “The better I play, the more I know, the more comfortable I feel. It's just kind of a cycle.”
The Bills have also placed Allen in ideal circumstances. They traded this off-season for Stefon Diggs, one of the best wideouts in the NFL, to go with deep threat John Brown and always-open slot receiver Cole Beasley.
Daboll has tailored the Bills' offence to Allen's strengths, lining up frequently with four wide receivers to let Allen see the field more easily and exploit his athleticism. The Bills have also used play-action on nearly 40 per cent of Allen's drop backs, well above the league average, and on those plays Allen has an eye-popping 147.4 passer rating, the best in the NFL.
“We have very similar mindsets,” Allen said. “I think that's why we've gelled so well.”
He appreciates what Daboll has done for him and the offence around him.
“The way that he calls games, the way he trusts his players, the way that he can see a game on Thursday night or Monday night — whatever it is — and look at that concept and say: `You know what? That's pretty cool. Let's see if we can use it here.' ... It's been a pleasure to play for him.”
Later this season, Allen's coaches will arrive at a moment when they must decide how much they trust him, if they believe he'll make the easy plays between the spectacular plays. Allen has been thinking about that moment all off-season. He's ready to show them he's different.