U.S. deaths could hit 500,000 by February

Study says use of masks would lower number

NEW YORK • The COVID-19 death toll could reach a half million in the United States by February unless nearly all Americans wear face masks, researchers said Friday, a day after the number of new infections reported across the country approached a record high.

A study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated the pandemic could claim more than 500,000 lives by February, more than double the current death toll of over 221,000. The projection reflects fears that colder weather will drive people indoors, where the virus is more likely to spread, and concerns that not enough people are wearing masks.

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are accelerating as cooler weather descends on much of the country. Nationwide, 76,195 new cases were reported on Thursday, just shy of the single-day record high of 77,299 on July 16.

Only India has seen more cases in one day: 97,894 on Sept. 17.

“We are heading into a very substantial fall/winter surge,” said IHME director Chris Murray, who co-led the research. “We expect the surge to … continue to increase as we head towards high levels of daily deaths in late December and in January.”

But the number of possible deaths could drop by 130,000 if 95 per cent of Americans would cover their faces, the IHME said.

U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar attributed the increase to behaviour of individuals, saying household gatherings have become a “major vector of disease spread.”

A day after the president claimed, without citing evidence, that COVID-19 was “going away,” Pennsylvania, a hotly contested state in the presidential election, reported its largest single-day increase since the pandemic began.

On Thursday, there were 916 reported fatalities in the U.S., a day after the country recorded over 1,200 new deaths for the first time since August. COVID-19 deaths are up 13 per cent from last week, averaging 785 a day over the past seven days.

The number of COVID-19 patients in U.S. hospitals is up 34 per cent from Oct. 1.

North Dakota, with 887 new cases on Thursday, remains the hardest-hit state, based on new cases per capita. As for sheer numbers, Texas reported the most new cases Thursday with 6,820 new infections, followed by California with 6,365.

Reporting record numbers of COVID-19 patients in the hospital were Iowa, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

In Tennessee, hospitals in Nashville said they have experienced a 40 per cent increase in virus patients admitted.

Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Utah all reported their biggest daily increase since the pandemic started.

Only the Northeast is without a significant surge, but infections are trending higher. Vermont has no hospitalized COVID-19 patients and posted 16 new cases on Thursday.