National Post (National Edition)
The surprise races that could determine the Senate majority
South Carolina, Georgia could tell tale
In the battle for the Senate majority, some races are easier to confidently predict than others.
There are races Republicans are more likely to win than lose (Alabama) and more likely to lose than win (Colorado and Arizona). Then there are several that are toss-ups that could decide the Senate majority (North Carolina, Maine, Iowa and maybe Montana).
But every election, there are surprise outcomes, and this year, every race counts. Democrats need to win the White House and then, given the likely loss in Alabama, gain three more seats to take over the majority. They have a path to do it but not much margin for error.
Let's take a look:
1. Democrats unseat Lindsey Graham
in South Carolina. That this race is even competitive is already the surprise of 2020. Several polls in September and October showed the race virtually tied between Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, with his Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison.
Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic is resonating here, as some Trump supporters peel away from Graham. And Harrison annihilated a nationwide Senate fundraising record to be able to cover the airwaves with his personal story and draw in suburban voters.
But are there enough people willing to vote for a Democrat in South Carolina? A more recent, mid-October New York Times/Siena College poll had Graham at 46 per cent and Harrison at 40 per cent.
2. A double January run-off in Georgia. There are two Georgia Senate races this year: One is more traditional, as Republican Sen. David Perdue tries to get re-elected.
The second is a special election with several candidates, most prominently Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Republican Rep. Doug Collins and Democrat Raphael Warnock.
Georgia is an increasingly competitive state for Democrats; polls show the presidential race roughly tied there. As a result, Perdue appears tied with his Democratic challenger, Jon Ossoff, most recently in a mid-October New York Times/Siena College poll, with both at 43 per cent. But Georgia election rules require a candidate to get to 50 per cent to win outright, which could mean the two go to a run-off in January, when the winner takes all.
The special election is more muddled and thus will most likely go to a January run-off.
But recently, the top Democrat in the race, Warnock, is jumping ahead in the polls over the two Republicans, which is remarkable for a previously littleknown pastor who has never run for office before. The same NYT/Siena poll has him leading the field at 32 per cent, with Loeffler at 23 per cent and Collins at 17 per cent.
Democrats haven't traditionally performed well in runoffs in Georgia, and in any January race, Trump and Biden won't be on the ballot to help drive turnout among Democrats.
In the special election run-off, Republican support will be more consolidated with just one top candidate.
Still, signs look good for Democrats to keep Republicans from winning these Senate seats on the first try.
3. Republicans unseat a Democrat
in Michigan. Besides Alabama, Republicans' only other pickup opportunity this year is in Michigan.
Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has had a sleepy race against Republican challenger John James, a veteran and conservative media darling who has been a strong fundraiser. But that may be changing as outside groups pour millions of dollars into this race, causing polls to tighten in a way that worries some Democrats, especially as James has moderated his message for a state with Democratic leanings. A recent Fox News poll had Peters up eight points, 49 per cent to James's 41 per cent. Other polls showed it closer — enough to worry Democrats that they could lose this seat if James convinces enough moderates to vote for him.
4. Democrats unseat Republicans in
Kansas, Alaska or Texas. The Democratic momentum we're seeing across the nation is spreading to these conservative-leaning states, as well. In our final 2020 Senate rankings, these races are categorized as ones that could flip under the right conditions for Democrats. In an open Senate race in Kansas,
Democrat Barbara Bollier is just four percentage points behind Republican Rep. Roger Marshall, 42 to 46 per cent, according to a recent NYT/Siena poll. Republicans are nervous after voters in the state elected a Democrat to the governor's mansion just two years ago and picked up a House seat. “We're still a red state, but we're pinker than people think we are,” Patrick Miller, a political-science professor at the University of Kansas, told The Washington Post. In Texas, Republican Sen. John Cornyn has had a consistent, if sometimes narrowing, lead over Democrat MJ Hegar. A new Quinnipiac University poll had Cornyn up six points, 49 per cent to Hegar's 43 per cent. But Hegar does have more ads on TV than Cornyn does, and a major
Democratic super PAC injected more than US$8 million in the final weeks of the race to help Hegar, a sign of Democrats' optimism. Biden is also behind Trump by just two points here, according to a Washington Post average of polls. In Alaska, there are very few high-quality polls to help us understand where independent Al Gross, a doctor and fisherman, stands as he tries to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. One, a recent NYT/Siena College poll, found that Gross trails Sullivan by eight points, 37 to 45 per cent, as Trump's standing in the state falls compared with 2016. Alaska does have an independent streak, but as a Republican strategist put it, this is a state that wants to vote Republican.