National Post (National Edition)
Ford has realized Ontario went too far with shutdown
Five-level response model offers balance
Finally, the Ontario government has produced rational guidelines to replace its regime of poorly explained pandemic restrictions. Premier Doug Ford's announcement Tuesday will provide welcome clarity for all Ontarians, but especially those whose jobs or businesses have been affected by the province's 28-day shutdown of restaurants, gyms and cinemas.
The premier has been under increasing pressure from frustrated business owners who have complied with the province's safe operating rules, have had no outbreaks, and yet were shut down nearly a month ago. As justification, the province offered mostly lame arguments, such as that gyms were implicated in two per cent of outbreaks, or when people gathered without masks, something bad could happen.
As the premier himself has observed, if you are going to take away someone's living, you'd better have a good reason for it. Exactly. But the province fell far short of that, imposing restrictions without explaining exactly what factors and thresholds were considered.
The new plan sets the rules for living with the pandemic, rather than focusing all our energy on fighting it. It's something we are going to have to do until there is a vaccine.
Instead of three stages, the province will offer five levels of pandemic response. The lowest, or green category still imposes restrictions on gatherings and behaviours, but they are modest. Most areas of Ontario fall into this category. Restrictions become slightly more substantial in the yellow category, which currently includes four public health units.
Next is the orange level, which includes Toronto, Peel, Ottawa and York. Eastern Ontario is a new addition to this group. Under the new rules, those areas will see restaurants, gyms and cinemas open Saturday, except for Toronto, which has asked for an additional week. Beyond that, there is a restrictive red category, but no part of the province is in that now. The final category is lockdown.
Schools will remain open in every category except lockdown. The theory is that COVID cases in schools are the result of community transmission and they can be managed at the individual school level.
For each category the province has spelled out epidemiological, public health and health-system capacity measures. Included are things like the weekly case level per 100,000 population, positivity rate, transmission rate, hospital bed capacity and contact tracing capability. These are the factors restrictions should be based on, but without specific numbers that indicate the need for more restrictions, the province's moves looked like voodoo, with perhaps a hint of astrology.
While the new rules set thresholds for moving from one stage to another, that is a decision that will still rely on the judgment of provincial and local public health doctors, who will weigh multiple factors, not just one number.
The new approach is the Ford government's best expression of the oft-mentioned balance among the physical, emotional and economic concerns the pandemic has created. More than eight months into the pandemic, it's the only rational way to approach the situation. That point was made Monday by Ottawa's medical officer of health, Dr. Vera Etches. She said people need to “get back to living” and learn to coexist with COVID-19 because it's going to be with us for quite a while yet.
That's inarguably true and would have been a sensible thing to say any time in the past several months, but Etches's comments drew gasps of horror from those who still believe that COVID-19 numbers can, and must, be kept as low as humanly possible, regardless of the effect on other types of health care or the economy. That group will not be at all pleased with Ford's announcement, especially as it came on a day when the province announced 1,050 new cases, another record.
None of this is to say that people don't need to act sensibly, wear masks, wash their hands and avoid big groups as much as possible. These are the safety measures that the new pandemic plan relies on for success.
Ford's move shows that the government's thinking has evolved considerably in the four weeks since he imposed new restrictions based on much lower case numbers. The new plan raises the threshold at which government will impose job-destroying economic restrictions. It also clarifies what factors and numbers will compel the government to impose restrictions in the future. Those are two big steps forward, and long overdue.
`GET BACK TO LIVING' AND LEARN
TO COEXIST WITH COVID-19.