National Post (National Edition)
Youth connection may have been Biden X-factor
Young voters a big part of turnout surge
The youth vote in the 2020 U.S. presidential election swung heavily in favour of 77-year-old Joe Biden over Donald Trump, age 74, a trend that, as the votes continued to be counted on Wednesday, may have made a difference in some key battlegrounds.
The voter turnout in 2020 was unprecedented across the entire United States, according to the United States Election Project, which tracks information about the electoral system. Estimates come from exit polls — official data on turnout won't be available until the census bureau releases it in a few months' time. According to the Project's data, only five states — Hawaii, Oklahoma and Arkansas, Tennessee and West Virginia saw less than 60 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, while Minnesota and New Hampshire had voter turnout in excess of 80 per cent.
In every single state for which there is data, analyzed by Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), a youth-focused research centre at Tufts University, young voters — defined as those between 18 and 29 years old — took up a double-digit share of the total ballots cast. CIRCLE uses AP VoteCast data from The Associated Press,
“Nearly half of all eligible young people cast ballots in the most critical election races in the country,” says CIRCLE's analysis.
Young voters preferred Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate over Trump, the Republican candidate and current president, in 34 of 38 states for which CIRCLE had vote data.
Overall, 62 per cent of those voters cast their ballot for Biden compared to 33 per cent for Trump. These are, CIRCLE notes, figures that outpace even the votes received from younger voters by Hillary Clinton in 2016 (although the data, because of sources and year, aren't entirely comparable.)
Peter Loewen, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, said there's little doubt Biden benefitted from a high share of the youth vote and higher youth turnout. But that doesn't mean they “delivered” the election for him or the Democrats, he said.
“It's always hard to figure out how much differences in political behaviour due to age are because of something generational ... or whether it is something that is really a life cycle thing,” said Loewen.
In Virginia, youth voters cast 21 per cent of all ballots; in Georgia, it was 20
per cent. Georgia remained a battleground state, as of Wednesday morning, while Virginia had been called for Biden, according to Reuters.
Youth were the lowest proportion in Kentucky (10 per cent) and Louisiana (12 per cent.) Both states were projected by Reuters to be Republican victories.
William Frey, a researcher with the Brookings Institution, said there are some states where the youth vote turnout helped Biden, but it's still too early to make those determinations for certain.
“It's clearly the case that ... the younger population is more likely to vote for Biden than they were for Clinton vis-à-vis Trump,” Frey said.
“Certainly going forward in the U.S., it's the younger generation ... is going to be the main driver for Democratic support, probably everywhere.”
Further breaking down the data, every single ethnic group in CIRCLE's youth cohort voted in a majority for Biden: 88 per cent of Black youth voted Biden; 83 per cent of Asian youth; 75 per cent of Latino youth; and 53 per cent of white youth.
Support for Trump, meanwhile, clustered in older voters. The highest proportion of voters who cast ballots for Trump landed in the 30to-44 age cluster, with 57 per cent of voters voting Republican. From age 45 and up, 51 per cent of voters voted for Trump.
Frey said far more seniors were expected to abandon Trump for Biden, according to polling data leading to the election. That didn't materialize.
“I don't think the senior surge was as big as some of the polls said,” Frey said.
However it all turns out, Loewen said, it's a testament to how serious the competition is in the United States and the effort parties put forward to winning votes.
“It's just an amazingly dynamic and competitive system,” he said.
I DON'T THINK THE SENIOR SURGE WAS AS BIG.