Why no landslide for Biden? It's complicated

PANDEMIC EFFECT

The election was not the landslide for Joe Biden that many had predicted.

A big reason for that prediction was the coronavirus surging in many of the states Donald Trump needs to win; it was thought voters would likely punish Trump for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. But the results have been more complicated.

Here's a look at some key states, and whether Trump defied expectations.

FLORIDA

Trump badly needed to win this state to keep his re-election chances alive. As it turned out, he won it fairly easily Tuesday night by three percentage points thanks to Biden underperforming in the Miami area. Florida's COVID-19 situation is still precarious, as it reported 4,637 new cases and 56 new deaths on Tuesday. However, those numbers are not nearly as high as they were in July, when Florida was reporting more than 10,000 new cases daily. The state lifted most of its health restrictions in September, including on crowd sizes for restaurants and sports events. Still, Trump hit the message during the campaign that the threat from the virus was exaggerated.

ARIZONA

Trump won this state by a four-point margin in 2016, but both Fox News and The Associated Press project Biden will flip the state blue. Trump's campaign is insisting they still have a shot at winning this state. Arizona reported 1,548 new cases on Tuesday and 40 new deaths, and all the metrics have been rising over the past month. But these numbers are also far below where they were in summer, when Arizona was reporting 4,000 cases daily. The state has reopened its businesses during the fall, lifting restrictions on bars, gyms and movie theatres on Oct. 1.

OHIO

Trump cruised to a comfortable win here. That's despite the fact Ohio is facing its worst surge of COVID-19 cases of the entire pandemic so far, reporting a record 4,229 new cases and 33 new deaths on Tuesday. In the spring and summer its cases had never passed 2,000 in a day. Businesses are largely open in Ohio, operating with some restrictions on capacity. As new cases spike, Republican Governor Mike DeWine has so far resisted calls to shut down parts of the economy again.

PENNSYLVANIA

Still to be decided. But the state is currently in its highest COVID-19 surge of the pandemic, with a record 2,868 new cases and 33 deaths reported on Tuesday. Its Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, has been in a fight with the courts over his powers to shut down businesses, but as of November the state was largely reopen with crowd size restrictions being eased.