Ford to lock down Ontario — again

Get ready for another pandemic lockdown in Ontario, at least in major cities. The new case projections provincial experts presented Thursday will compel Premier Doug Ford to reimpose severe restrictions, even though he has worked hard to avoid it.

Dr. Steini Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto and the province’s modelling expert, is predicting that Ontario will see 6,000 cases a day by late December, four times the level of today. That’s enough to put significant strain on the healthcare system and death counts will spike, especially among older people. For a politician, it’s an unsupportable number.

Brown made it clear that Ontario will remain on that trajectory without some kind of serious restrictions, although he didn't specify exactly what would be required. Even with a lockdown, case numbers will continue to rise in the short term.

Brown's projection is just that, of course: a model of what might happen if things stay as they are.

Just two weeks ago, he predicted that things would remain under control.

That doesn't mean his warning can be ignored now.

For months, Ford has been pulled one way by those who want pandemic control at all costs and the other way by those who emphasize the need to balance that control against the economic and mental health damage lockdowns cause. The new restriction framework the provincial government introduced last week was a big win for those who argue that the cost of a lockdown outweighs its benefits. Even public health leaders were acknowledging the point.

Now, a rather large gorilla has just sat on the pandemic-control side of the scale.

At the moment, Ontario's hospitalization numbers are manageable, and the province's 58 active cases per 100,000 is the lowest in the country except for the territories and the Atlantic provinces. Manitoba has triple the rate and is an example of how quickly things can change.

Ford and the province's chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, both argued Thursday that what happens next is really up to the public. Keep washing your hands, wearing your masks and physically distancing, and for God's sake, don't hold big house parties.

Maybe the latest numbers will scare some sense into the minority of people who are causing the virus numbers to rise, but it's not exactly a safe bet. Unfortunately for politicians in this pandemic, they are expected to save us from ourselves, and if they don't, it's on them.

Ford's next move will be a critical one, for him and for the province. He doesn't need to abandon his framework, but he's going to have to move some areas into a higher control level. That will trigger the job losses, economic harm and general public depression he has been trying to avoid, but there is no guarantee that a lockdown will have a quick or dramatic impact.

The analysis presented Thursday suggested that the partial lockdown that closed restaurants and gyms for a month across much of the province had only a limited effect on case numbers. There is a good reason for that. Those sectors weren't contributing much to the problem in the first place.

Unfortunately, businesses that have spent a lot of money and are doing their part to keep infections down are likely to be the victims in the next round of closures. How much good it will do remains to be seen. It's easy compare a new lockdown to what was done in March and predict major success, but that first lockdown made dramatic changes to a fully open economy.

Now, there isn't as much scope for action. Ontario is still substantially shut down. Large public gatherings are not even contemplated, much less allowed. Even small gatherings are regulated and limited. People who can work from home continue to do so. Retail and restaurants operate with significant limitations on how many people they can serve. There is general agreement that schools should stay open, as should essential businesses.

Whatever Ford does next, and he should do it soon, he shouldn't forget that the scope and nature of the pandemic varies widely across the province. Toronto and Peel Region have big problems, rural areas much less so. Ottawa was moving into the danger zone, but it has reduced its numbers. If Ottawa can keep its numbers down without additional restrictions, it would offer proof that people's actions can make a difference.

Another lockdown would be a lot to bear after all that Ontarians have already been through. The only way to stave it off is increase our own vigilance, right this very minute. The alternative will be worse.

Doug Ford