National Post (National Edition)
POLITICIANS SHOULDN'T FEAR THE MIDDLE GROUND
We need to learn to live with COVID-19. Until a vaccine is available, Canadians expect governments to balance strategies that protect public health and keep small businesses open and financially viable. At this stage of the pandemic, there is little tolerance for neglecting either.
Political leaders are elected to make difficult, thoughtful decisions. In response to COVID-19, Canada's premiers have taken different approaches, some relying exclusively on recommendations from public health officials; others considering public health as one of several important factors.
Until recently, Ontario Premier Doug Ford used a portion of his daily press conferences to outline the health and economic consequences of a lockdown. While acknowledging the severity of COVID-19, he also illustrated the human cost of shutting down an economy, commonly speaking of the effects to employment, physical and mental health, and the negative social impacts. Ford spoke of individuals who poured life savings into their businesses and the disaster they would face from another shutdown.
In an effort to balance economic and health considerations, and provide greater certainty in these uncertain times, the Ontario government introduced its COVID-19 response framework. Within a matter of weeks, the premier faced intense criticism around the infection thresholds for each stage in the framework; municipalities adopting their own additional restrictions; and modelling data demonstrating potential exponential growth in virus transmission.
Due to political and public pressure, the premier backed down from attempts to balance his province's response and ordered a shutdown in certain regions. While these are explained as “targeted” lockdowns, they are aimed at regions that are generally responsible for the bulk of Ontario's economic activity.
Each premier has a different level of tolerance for criticisms of their COVID responses. But many face a lose-lose proposition as they try to harmonize economic and health perspectives. Absent a full lockdown, public health officials will decry COVID responses as half measures delaying the inevitable. Small businesses and entrepreneurs may object to measures deemed unfair or contradictory when restrictions are made with weak data to back them up.
Ultimately, the decision on whether to “lockdown” a province depends on each premiers' personal beliefs and leadership style, their reliance on ever-shifting public health advice and a frank assessment of each province's unique situation.
Conservative Premier Brian Pallister acted quickly to order a shutdown in Manitoba as soon as cases spiked. NDP Premier John Horgan refuses to take similar action as British Columbia continues to experience record-breaking COVID case counts. Regions in Ontario are in lockdown despite having the same or fewer daily COVID cases than Alberta — a province with a fraction of Ontario's population.
Critics will dismiss approaches they dislike as lacking leadership and seriousness. However, leadership during times of crisis often requires disagreement with the loudest voices. Taking a matter seriously should not equate to adopting the position of vocal critics.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney touts a similar message as his Ontario counterpart, but has so far shown more resolve in his approach, holding firm that while tougher restrictions are needed, the province should remain open for business. To Kenney, many people see the need to just “do something” in response to COVID-19.
With calls to shut down restaurants, bars and gyms in his province, “do something-ers” were reminded that 40 per cent of COVID-19 cases in the province have been traced to transmission at homes and in private, social gatherings — hence, his calls for people to assume a level of personal responsibility.
While a balanced approach may be most prudent in combating COVID-19, choosing the middle ground leaves opponents on either side. Nonetheless, political leaders must remain steadfast in their responses, communicate clearly and confidently, and reassure the public that a thoughtful, evidence-based plan is being executed. Leaders who constantly reverse and revise policies when faced with pressure are likely to be discredited.
With promising news of a potential vaccine on the horizon, the time will come for all to assess the advice of public health officials and the final decisions of political leaders. They will be judged as part of our understanding of what went right, what went wrong and why.
Until then, the public needs confidence that their leaders have a plan in place, while ensuring harmony among the competing responses to COVID-19.