National Post (National Edition)
Ford tells Ontario he's scared, then refuses to say what scares him
Premier teases COVID modelling but takes no action
Premier Doug Ford called a media conference Friday to tell Ontarians that the latest COVID-19 modelling numbers were “scary,” so much so that “it will make you fall off your chair.” If you don't believe him, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health Barbara Yaffe offered her scientific opinion that Friday's numbers were “scary,” never mind what we are going to see next week.
Having predicted the impending apocalypse, Ford announced no new preventive measures and told Ontarians he'd get back to them next week, after the scary modelling comes out on Tuesday. If the problem is that bad, why did the premier not release the modelling Friday and announce additional lockdown measures? Instead, he's getting back to Ontarians days from now, after they have seen the scary modelling numbers for themselves. Friday's act was just the pre-scare.
Ontarians will have the weekend to ponder what Ford plans to do next. A Quebec-style curfew, surely, but that might not be all. The province is already in a lockdown that is supposed to end in a couple of weeks. That's certainly not happening. Ominously, Ford referred to the need to hang in until April, when it is anticipated that the province's slow-moving vaccination program will start to deliver some serious numbers. Will the province be locked down until then?
Some tough questions need to be asked about the assumptions that will underlie Ford's next move. Is modelling usefully predictive and is there something meaningful government can do to further suppress case numbers?
The government's last round of modelling was released on Dec. 21 and provided the scare factor that led to a provincewide lockdown, a move that overturned the province's policy of acting on actual regional case numbers and positivity rates, not predictions of what might happen.
The headline-grabbing scary number in the last projection was that Ontario could reach 30,000 COVID cases a day by Jan. 24. If that projection had been accurate, Ontario would have 10,000 cases a day now. Instead, it has about 3,500. The provincial modellers showed potential lower numbers, too, in line with what we have actually seen. Perhaps those would not have had a sufficient fear factor to justify the current lockdown.
Modelling is only as good as the assumptions it is based on, and the 30,000 case per day prediction assumed a case increase of seven per cent a day. There was no persuasive argument that such a rate was likely, and it has been proven to be wildly unrealistic. So, something to think about before you fall off your chair when you see next week's case numbers.
Although far lower than the worst-case prediction, Ontario's numbers are high compared to what we have seen previously. There is no disputing that. It's less clear what more the government can do about it. That's the scary part.
Since the pandemic began, governments have maintained the illusion that they can control COVID -19. It's a nice idea, but slowing the pace of infection has always been a more realistic goal. The Ford government seems to have already concluded that the lockdown in place now is ineffective, although it knows that it would take two weeks to see any positive results, and we've just hit that mark now.
Adding a curfew would seem to offer little likelihood of a better result unless one thinks that most COVID transmission takes place after 8 p.m. Imposing a curfew is what a government does when it has run out of useful ideas but still wants to be seen to do something.
Rationally, it would make more sense to zero in on geographic areas and workplaces where transmission is highest. We keep hearing about transmission in warehousing, food processing and transportation, but they are all deemed essential, so remain open.
If Ford's next lockdown doesn't close some so-called essential workplaces, it will be meaningless. Supply chain disruptions are a real issue, but maybe manufacturing and distribution should be shut down for at least a couple of weeks.
At least that approach would be rational, which is a little more than one can say about the snap decision to keep elementary schools closed for an additional two weeks. It seems that infection numbers in children have increased considerably while they were out of school. The solution is to keep them out of school longer.
Ford's media event Friday was worse than useless. Telling people you're scared does not help them or instil confidence, especially when you hold back the fear-inducing information. One would have thought the premier would realize that by now.