National Post (National Edition)
Additional fiscal stimulus fuels U.S. retail sales
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after households received additional pandemic relief money from the government, suggesting a pickup in economic activity after being restrained by a fresh wave of COVID-19 infections late last year.
The surge in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was across the board and ended three straight months of declines. Other data showed inflation pressures building up at the factory gate, with producer prices posting their biggest gain since 2009 in January.
Retail sales surged by a seasonally adjusted 5.3 per cent last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Data for December was revised down to show sales decreasing 1.0 per cent instead of 0.7 per cent as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales increasing 1.1 per cent in January.
Retail sales increased 7.4 per cent from a year ago. Sales last month were led by motor vehicles, with receipts at auto dealerships accelerating 3.1 per cent after increasing 2.0 per cent in December. Sales at clothing stores soared 5.0 per cent.
Consumers also stepped up spending at restaurants and bars, boosting receipts 6.9 per cent. Still, sales at restaurants and bars were down 16.6 per cent compared to January 2020.
Receipts at electronics and appliance stores powered ahead 14.7 per cent and sales at furniture stores surged 12.0 per cent. There were also hefty increases in sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores.
Receipts at food and beverage stores rose solidly, as did those at building material stores. Online retail sales jumped 11.0 per cent after dropping 7.3 per cent in December.
Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 6.0 per cent last month after decreasing by a revised 2.4 per cent in December.
These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously estimated to have dropped 1.9 per cent in December.
The government approved another coronavirus rescue package worth nearly US$900 billion at the end of December, which included US$600 cheques to mostly low-income and some middle-income Americans. The bulk of the money was disbursed in early January, which supported discretionary spending last month.
The package also extended a government-funded weekly unemployment subsidy as well as benefits for millions of people who do not qualify for state unemployment programs as well as those who have exhausted their six months of eligibility.
U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were higher.
Some of the sharp rebound was technical. The model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data typically anticipates a bigger post-holiday season drop in retail sales in January. The drop in unadjusted sales was smaller than in previous years, contributing to the big rise in the seasonally adjusted retail sales.
Further gains in sales are expected in the months ahead. The U.S. Congress is considering President Joe Biden's US$1.9 trillion recovery plan, which will include an additional US$1,400 cheque to households. The massive fiscal stimulus is expected to power consumer spending this quarter and drive faster economic growth.
COVID-19 infection rates and hospitalizations in the United States are also declining, and the distribution of vaccines has improved. That should allow more restaurants and other consumer-facing businesses to reopen in the spring.
Employed Americans have boosted savings, which stood at US$2.38 trillion in December. That could unleash pent-up demand for services like air travel and hotel accommodation, which have been hardest hit by the pandemic.
The economy is forecast growing by as much as 4.8 per cent this year after contracting 3.5 per cent in 2020, the biggest drop in gross domestic product since 1946.
Firming economic activity is starting to boost inflation. In a separate report on Wednesday, the Labour Department said its producer price index for final demand jumped 1.3 per cent last month, the biggest gain since December 2009 when the government revamped the series. That followed a 0.3 per cent rise in December.
In the 12 months through January, the PPI accelerated 1.7 per cent after rising 0.8 per cent in December. A 1.3 per cent rise in the price of services accounted for two-thirds of the increase in the PPI. That was the biggest gain since December 2009 and followed a 0.1 per cent drop in December.
The cost of goods surged 1.4 per cent after gaining 1.0 per cent in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would rise 0.4 per cent in January and gain 0.9 per cent on a year-onyear basis. Inflation is under focus this year amid concerns from some quarters that Biden's recovery plan could lead to the overheating of the economy.
Higher inflation is anticipated by the spring as price declines early in the coronavirus crisis wash out of the calculations, but there is no consensus among economists on whether it would stick beyond the so-called base effects.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week he expected the rise in price pressures would be transitory, citing three decades of lower and stable inflation.