National Post (National Edition)
Shortstops command baseball's spotlight
THE GAME'S BRIGHTEST RISING STARS ARE ALL UNDER 30 AND THEY'RE ALL FREE AGENTS AFTER THIS YEAR
Regardless of how the coronavirus shapes the course of the 2021 Major League baseball season, shortstops seem likely to be at the centre of it all from beginning to end.
On the first day of full squad workouts, the San diego Padres announced the record deal they committed to Fernando Tatis Jr. by the last day of the World Series, five of the game's elite shortstops could be free agents, depending on what happens between now and then.
Next year's free agent class, one identified and planned for by executives for years, currently includes Chicago Cubs defensive wizard Javy baez, houston Astros superstar Carlos Correa, New york Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, Los Angeles dodgers standout Corey Seager, and Colorado rockies slugger Trevor Story.
All of them will be under 30 years old at the start of the 2022 season. All of them have been all-stars. All but Correa have been all-stars more than once. Three of them have won World Series titles. And, more than eight months before free agency begins, they're already fielding roughly as many questions about their futures as they are ground balls.
Spring training allows time for speculation and room for projection. When the reality of a season hits, those conversations are often less welcome. Correa and Lindor both made that point Monday, when both addressed reporters at ballparks a short drive apart, and both said they probably won't negotiate an extension if one isn't in place by the start of the season.
“If the Astros would like to extend me, I would like to get it done before the season starts,” Correa said. “Once the season starts — I feel so good, my body feels so great, I feel like I'm going to have such a great season — once the season starts, I don't want to be involved and distracted with those conversations.”
Cleveland traded Lindor to the Mets in January rather than commit to an extension, a deal that probably boosted his chances of getting an extension but also complicated the process. by the time reporters were asking about his future, Lindor still needed help finding the practice fields and was still getting used to all the blue and orange. he said he and the Mets haven't had time to talk about an extension yet, but when they do, he wants those conversations to lead to a deal or stop on opening day. Acting Mets general manager Zack Scott said Monday his feelings about negotiations are “the sooner, the better.”
“Obviously have to get to know the organization, get to know the people, and they have to get to know me,” Lindor said. “If something comes up, we'll see in the future. That's between my agent and (team president Sandy Alderson) and the rest of the staff.”
“I have never been scared about free agency,” he said later. “So it's not like I have got to rush to sign a deal.”
Seager avoided arbitration with the dodgers, settling on $13.75 million for the 2021 season. dodgers team president Andrew Friedman has been coy about Seager's future with the team, which has plenty of young stars worthy of long extensions soon and may have to choose among them. Seager's agent is Scott boras, notorious for urging players to wait until free agency and maximize their value, rather than take anything resembling a hometown discount.
baez, too, is one of a cohort of Cubs World Series stars who probably aren't going to be able to coexist there financially long term. Kris bryant and Anthony rizzo are both free agents after this season.
Story told reporters Tuesday that he hasn't begun extension conversations with the rockies, either. Shortly after the deal that sent Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals, rockies general manager Jeff bridich said that selling off one star didn't mean the team was going to sell off Story, too. but as for the shortstop's long-term future, after watching the tumultuous end to Arenado's once-promising rockies tenure, a major extension is no sure thing.
Lingering beneath their individual cases is the Tatis deal, which seems likely to shift the shortstop contract paradigm — though in what direction depends on one's point of view.
When compared to other young superstars' mammoth extensions, Tatis' trails only Mike Trout's and Mookie betts' — rare generational stars, likely future hall of famers — in total value.
but the deal is less earth-shattering in terms of average annual value. Tatis' deal pays him an average of just more than uS$24 million annually — uS$11 million less per year than Trout or his Angels teammate Anthony rendon. The deal George Springer signed with the blue Jays, for example, pays him uS$25 million annually. Tatis' teammate, Manny Machado, averages uS$30 million.
So when agents for baez, Correa, Lindor, Seager and Story begin to negotiate, the Tatis deal could provide a new benchmark.
While the length of Tatis' deal and the age at which he signed it shattered norms, the annual earnings hardly blew up the position-player market as we know it. In fact, for those agents who view their players as generational stars — boras, for example, tends to cast most of his elite free agents that way — Tatis may have lowered the standard somewhat, at least in comparison with recent deals given to elite infielders.
rendon is earning uS$35 million annually. Arenado's deal with the rockies, now passed to the Cardinals, averages uS$32.5 million. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt's deal with the Cardinals averages uS$26 million.
but the Tatis deal may have moved the bar for shortstops, as a position group, in the other direction.
until Tatis signed his deal, only two other shortstops had broken a uS$20-million AAV: Alex rodriguez and Xander bogaerts, who signed with boston through 2026 for an AAV of uS$20 million but can opt out after the 2022 season. When compared with shortstops of comparable age and star power who have signed in the past five years or so, Tatis got more.
The agents for those five shortstops, as well as the agent for extension candidate and 2022 free agent Trea Turner of the Washington Nationals, could use the Tatis deal to argue their clients — particularly those with less hype around them who may otherwise not command quite so much — deserve similar compensation.
If their numbers are comparable in some stretch to Tatis', even if they would have been in line for a bogaerts-esque deal before, perhaps they can persuade a team to raise the price.
but the comparisons are complicated. Tatis signed his deal at 22, after 143 games in the majors, ahead of his arbitration years. his deal seems to account for the more limited earnings he would have accumulated in his arbitration years, as well as what he could have made had he become a free agent at 25. his talent and appeal are unique, and few players have accumulated as many high-profile endorsement deals as he has at such a young age.
but Tatis' deal also accounts for risk: A 143-game track record is the definition of a small sample size, the enemy of trustworthy baseball analysis — though, of course, that sample could be underestimating Tatis' future production as much as overestimating it. either way, Tatis decided to take $340 million now instead of what may have been a bigger free agent deal in a few years.
For all those reasons and more, the average annual value of his deal isn't a perfect measure for the five shortstops hitting the market next winter at 29 (baez), 27 (Correa), 28 (Lindor), 27 (Seager) and 29 (Story). baez is less of an offensive force than the others, for example.
“Tatis got an outstanding deal for him. I am truly happy for him,” Lindor said Monday. “he deserves it, his family deserves it, and that shows the game is headed in the right direction.”
ultimately, the difference in age (Tatis is at least five years younger than all of those shortstops) and service time (his deal bought out arbitration years) mean direct comparisons aren't fully credible. but agents and owners aren't bound to credible arguments.
As the most talented class of free agent shortstops in years hits the market next off-season, both sides will be dealing with the financial ramifications of the biggest deal ever given to a shortstop. Middle infields around the majors will be reconstructed accordingly.