Argo worthy, but Zero Dark Thirty more thrilling
In our annual pre-oscar ceremony roundup, JAY STONE takes a look at the contenders for the main Academy Awards and makes his predictions.
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Amour, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will win: Argo, which has overtaken Lincoln as the favourite and been sweeping up the hardware — BAFTA (the British Academy awards), the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild and more. It’s a worthy choice: a smart entertainment about the 1980 Iran hostage crisis that combines high tension with a hilarious portrait of Hollywood insiders who helped plan the escape. It’s also surprisingly sophisticated about the politics of the region.
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty is a darkly propulsive combination of storytelling and journalism that (like Argo) re-creates history, but with a thrilling immediacy.
The debate over the film’s depiction of torture has destroyed its chances to win, but it provides an unmatched record of the shaky morality, official obsession and relentless detective work of one of our era’s defining moments: the hunt for Osama bin Laden.
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour); Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild); Ang Lee (Life of Pi); Steven Spielberg (Lincoln); David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook.)
Will win: In the absence of Argo’s Ben Affleck and Zero Dark Thirty’s Kathryn Bigelow, Steven Spielberg is likely to pick up his third Oscar (after Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan). Lincoln is magisterial rather than thrilling, but it is made with considerable craftsmanship, and it tells a story that — for all its realpolitik underpinnings — elevates an American icon. A Spielberg Oscar will be the consolation prize for not winning best picture.
Should win: Austrian director Michael Haneke is known for his sly, often cruel provocations, but Amour shows a tender side in its story of an elderly couple facing the end of their lives together. It’s brilliantly composed, and the sensitivity fades into a disturbing message that is a work of dark genius.
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook); Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln); Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables); Joaquin Phoenix (The Master); Denzel Washington (Flight).
Will win: Day-Lewis has been favoured since the day Lincoln opened, and he’s the closest thing to a shoo-in. It would be his third Oscar (after My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood). A meticulous artist, Day-Lewis finds the nuances in the physical appearance of Lincoln and then goes the extra step, replicating his accent and his clever folksiness.
It’s the sort of thing that Hollywood loves — playing a real-life person is an even better road to Oscar than playing someone with a disability — and Day-Lewis does it both quietly and richly, finding the humanity, the anger and the subtle political machinations in this complicated man. Also, who’s going to vote against Abraham Lincoln?
Should win: Day-Lewis, although there is an argument for Phoenix, who transforms himself both physically and emotionally into the complex acolyte in The Master.
BEST ACTRESS
The nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty); Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook); Emmanuelle Riva (Amour); Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild); Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence is picking up most of the pre-Oscar awards, and the momentum should carry her to the big one. She adds a jolt of sexy exuberance to Silver Linings Playbook as a troubled widow who latches on to Bradley Cooper, even though her history — as a promiscuous woman who has lost control of her life — is hard to buy from such an innocent-looking ingenue. But Lawrence is a star on the rise, and Oscar loves a sense of discovery.
Should win: I have a soft spot for youngest-ever nominee Quvenzhane Wallis, 9, but the honours should go to oldest-ever nominee Emmanuelle Riva, 85. In Amour, she plays an elderly woman who has a stroke and slowly fades into incontinence, depression and death. It’s a rich and textured turn that finds the shock of uncomfortable truth in every detail.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo); Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook); Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master); Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln); Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained).
Will win: Robert De Niro was once the greatest Hollywood screen actor. He’s slipped since then — the Fockers had something to do with that — but he’s back in Silver Linings Playbook with a sly performance as an angry, obsessive football fan.
It’s not his best work, but it’s his first nomination in 21 years, and De Niro has been taking part in a huge media push: He seems to care again. An Oscar would be a tribute to the lion in winter.
Should win: Tommy Lee Jones stole every scene as grumpy Congressman Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln. His sense of command — not to mention his sense of crankiness — has never been put to better use.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees: Amy Adams (The Master); Sally Field (Lincoln); Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables); Helen Hunt (The Sessions); Jackie Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook.)
Will win: Anne Hathaway is the favourite for her heart-wrenching performance as Fantine, the factory worker-turned-prostitute in Les Miserables.
It’s heart-wrenching in the biggest way possible: Hathaway gets to huddle in filthy misery and sing I Dreamed A Dream, a song that has come to define the sentimental yearning of the tragic outsider.
She’s a small part of an epic mosaic, but the emotions — not to mention the fact that she can sing! she can really sing! — should carry her through.
Should win: Hathaway, although there should be a special award for the bravery of Helen Hunt, who appears in the altogether as a sex surrogate in The Sessions.