Don’t count the Tories out
The close results in the Brandon-Souris byelection don’t tell us much about 2015, writes HARRY STERLING.
Some would like to consider the near-death experience of the Conservative candidate in the Nov. 25 byelection in Brandon-Souris as a clear sign of the waning fortunes of the Conservatives under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Those who regard the less than stellar results of Conservative candidates during the four byelections in Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba as a bellwether for the next federal election should not automatically assume that the Nov. 25 results represent some kind of kiss of death for the Conservative’s electoral prospects in 2015.
While Stephen Harper’s own political future as Conservative leader may increasingly seem problematic, this does not automatically mean the Conservative Party of Canada itself should be counted out.
Even during difficult times for the Tories, they can normally count on winning 25 to 30 per cent of the total vote. This builtin support becomes especially important if, as is happening now, the Liberals and NDP are competing for the balance along with independents and smaller political parties.
The other factor to bear in mind is that the present-day Conservative party did not win a majority solely because of Stephen Harper’s supposed political astuteness or widespread personal appeal. While he obviously played a critical role in formulating policies and an image of the party which took advantage of the Liberal party’s plummeting support, he essentially emphasized the same conservative policies of previous Conservative-inclined political movements, i.e., emphasis on sound economic policies, lower taxes, tough on crime legislation, traditional family values, etc.
And Harper’s ironclad control over the party and its disparate elements, especially his muzzling of the party’s so-called religious zealots, including the antiabortion and anti-gay elements, clearly was a factor in presenting a more moderate image of the party to voters, especially in pivotal places like Ontario with its massive voting bloc.
Although some of the abovementioned quasi fringe groups within the party did begin to resurface following the Conservatives winning a clear majority, Harper has managed to keep them reasonably under control with relative success.
However, despite Harper’s undoubted success in advancing the Conservative party’s electoral fortunes, it has not occurred simply because of his own personal astuteness. He did not personally create a new political party. He took over an existing political movement created in Canada’s Western provinces primarily through the efforts of Preston Manning.
But while Stephen Harper clearly is given credit for the steady growth in power of the present-day Conservative party (following the merger between the Progressive Conservatives, then led by Peter MacKay, with the one-time Reform Party members under Harper) a large percentage of Conservative party senior members already had their own power bases.
Many did not need Stephen Harper to get elected. They already enjoyed local support from Conservative militants and wellwishers.
In many cases, they could get elected solely on their own standing in specific ridings.
In this regard, one prominent Conservative MP in Alberta confided he had absolutely no need to seek the support of Stephen Harper to get re-elected. Many others have carved out their own power bases.
For example, Jason Kenney artfully used his former position of immigration minister to ingratiate himself with ethnic communities. His frequent attendance at events, including those given by foreign diplomats, has been extremely important in increasing his image and popularity with ethnic communities and their voters, many of whom have also given financial support to the Conservative Party.
He has steadily increased his support across Canada and recently demonstrated his ability to adopt independent positions when he strongly criticized Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, bluntly calling for him to resign, a move other Conservatives, including Harper, were reluctant to take.)
Where the Conservatives are most vulnerable are ridings where their younger and less known MPs with limited personal followers owe much of their political success to Harper’s own standing among Conservative voters.
For their part, many Conservative MPs from Ontario and the Maritimes have little need to seek Harper’s help to get elected, their existing stature in ridings being sufficient to ensure widespread electoral support. This is particularly pertinent for current MPs from Ontario previously elected to the Ontario legislature and now holding positions of importance in the government, including Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Foreign Minister John Baird.
However, there is growing concern among many less highlevel Conservative MPs over their own futures as the controversy over Harper’s involvement in the Duffy scandal continues endlessly with unpredictable consequences for party members during the next election.
(The recent early resignation of the highly respected and popular Conservative MP Ted Menzies is seen by some as a reflection of the sorry state of Canada’s fractious Parliament under Harper.)
While prominent Conservative parliamentarians have seemingly remained relatively unscathed so far from the current scandal, it is Prime Minister Harper who ultimately may become an unwanted liability and expendable as the next election draws nearer.